Mets vs Cubs Sunday Night Baseball Prop Bets: Alonso Buoys New York as Severino Goes Wild

Prop bet #1: Luis Severino Under 17.5 outs recorded

Luis Severino's first season with the New York Mets has been a success, as he's gone 4-2 with a 3.52 ERA through 14 starts. However, a few areas of concern may limit his results going forward.

First and foremost, his 17.4% strikeout rate and 6.51 K/9 are career lows. The right-hander has survived thanks to a .251 BABIP and 0.85 HR/9. Offense has been down across baseball, but as the weather warms, bats will as well. This may have already started to rear its head as he surrendered two long balls to the Rangers in his most recent start.

Additionally, his 8.8% walk rate, while not as much of a career outlier as his strikeouts, is quite poor. He's issuing more than three free passes per nine innings, which will bump up pitch counts more than anything.

Severino's outs recorded prop is 17.5, meaning the Under cashes if he doesn't complete six innings. While he's done that in four of his last five starts, including that shelling at the hands of the Rangers, this is unlikely to continue if he can't keep runners off the basepaths. Two of those offenses he held at bay were the Marlins and Nationals, both of which rank among the Bottom 10 in baseball. The Giants are a better offense, but they do most of their damage against lefties while boasting below-average numbers against righties like Severino.

The Chicago Cubs aren't having the best offensive season, but they walk at a 10% rate vs. right-handers (Top 3 in MLB) and can give pitchers like Severino headaches. Our Covers Projections powered by THE BAT peg him for 16.1 outs, so the Under at big plus money is the play today.

Luis Severino prop: Under 17.5 outs recorded (+150 at BetMGM)

Prop bet #2: Pete Alonso 2+ total bases

Pete Alonso has been one of MLB's hottest hitters in June, and particularly over the last week or so. Alonso has gone 11-for-30 (.367) with two home runs, four runs scored, and 10 RBI over his last seven games. Alonso has three multi-hit games in that stretch. He's entrenched in the Mets' clean-up spot, which ensures he gets ample opportunities with the bat.

I like the Over 1.5 on his hits + runs + RBI prop at slight plus money because he can cross the finish line in a variety of ways. A two-hit game does it but so does a home run or a clutch RBI double. While that was my first instinct, I like the value of him tallying 2+ total bases at +160.

Though Cubs starter Javier Assad has pitched well (2.75 ERA), he rarely goes deep into his starts, completing fewer than six innings in six straight and seven of eight. In fact, he's only gone six innings three times in 15 starts.

This is significant because Chicago's bullpen is bad. The 4.44 ERA ranks among the worst in MLB and Cubs relievers issue walks more frequently than all but two other bullpens. While Alonso could wind up as one of those Mets hitters to draw a walk, it's just as likely that he'll step up to the plate with runners on. If the Cubs can't pitch around him, they'll give him something to hit, and that's when he can do damage. 

An extra-base hit cashes this prop on its own, but so would a multi-hit game, which was one of the focal points of the H+R+RBI wager, except his total base milestone of two is available at +160.

Pete Alonso prop: 2+ total bases (+160 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Michael Busch Over 0.5 walks

This Michael Busch wager correlates mightily to our Severino bet in that the right-hander hasn't missed many bats, which would be a pain point for the Cubs rookie and his 32.4% strikeout rate.

Busch walks 12.6% of the time, which is 15th among all qualified hitters, making him among the most likely to receive a free pass to first tonight at Wrigley Field. Severino has struggled with walks all season.

While you could also target the Over 0.5 total bases (-155 at DraftKings) or the 2+ TB milestone (+170 at bet365), I prefer this route to protect against Severino's wildness (remember, walks don't count toward total bases). 

And if Severino gets chased early, New York's bullpen boasts a 10.7% walk rate, which is tied for fifth highest in MLB.

Michael Busch prop: Over 0.5 walks (+130 at BetMGM)