The Arizona Diamondbacks and New York Mets are both in the thick of the playoff race as the final month of the season approaches, so there’s lots on the line in this afternoon’s series decider at Chase Field.
Corbin Carroll was the Arizona hero last night with a late go-ahead grand slam in an 8-5 win, and we get a marquee pitching matchup today with David Peterson and Ryne Nelson on the mound.
My Mets vs. Diamondbacks predictions and MLB picks dive into why I believe the home team has the advantage in this Thursday, August 29 contest.
Mets vs Diamondbacks prediction
My best bet
Diamondbacks moneyline (-116 at FanDuel)
My analysis
With clutch hits and quality starts, the Arizona Diamondbacks are on a tear and look set to push the Los Angeles Dodgers all the way in the NL West division race. Needless to say, their 2023 World Series appearance was no fluke.
Arizona is surging at the perfect moment, with seven victories in its last eight games, and I’m picking the hosts to add to the win column again today.
The D-Backs are a strong home team — 38-27 at Chase Field in 2024 — and they’ve covered the run line in 41 of their past 68 contests overall. That’s put them right in the mix heading into the home stretch of the regular season.
They’re also 4-1 in Ryne Nelson’s past five starts, including a 12-2 win over the Boston Red Sox last week. The Arizona righty, in just his second full season as a starter, has improved after a rocky first half of the season, and he’s caught the eye with a 2.41 ERA in July and a 3.28 mark so far in August.
Runs won’t come easily for the hosts against New York Mets starter David Peterson, who’s 8-1 this season with a 2.85 ERA, but there’s plenty of firepower in this Arizona lineup which ranks second in the National League in hits.
It’s also worth noting that Peterson has struggled against the D-Backs in his career, with a 6.75 ERA in four appearances.
Heading into a huge weekend series against the Dodgers, the D-Backs can’t afford any slip-ups and I’m wagering on the hosts to grind out a win here.
Mets vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)
Diamondbacks moneyline
David Peterson Under 4.5 strikeouts
Over 8.5
With the Arizona hitters in a groove, I’m fading the Peterson strikeouts prop this afternoon. The Mets lefty has been outstanding this month, but he hasn’t always relied on punch-outs to frustrate opponents.
Peterson has fallen short of five Ks in three of his last five outings, and he only had two strikeouts through 7 1/3 innings against the San Diego Padres last weekend.
The D-Backs boast the third-fewest strikeouts in the NL, and I’m counting on their plate discipline and ability to get bat on ball here.
The Over is another attractive play, with Arizona leading the NL in runs and New York sitting in fifth. As good as the starting pitchers are, they will be under pressure from the start this afternoon in what’s poised to be another high-scoring thriller.
The Mets have hit the team total Over in 71 of their last 124 games, while the Over is 74-53 this year for the big-hitting D-Backs.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Diamondbacks odds
Mets vs Diamondbacks live odds
Mets vs Diamondbacks opening odds
- Moneyline: New York +104 | Arizona -112
- Run line: New York +1.5 | Arizona -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Mets vs Diamondbacks moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- With a real home-field edge, the D-Backs enter as slight favorites against a Mets team fighting to close the gap on the NL Wild Card spots.
- These teams are 3-3 in their six meetings in 2024, but Arizona has won three of the past four matchups.
- I see both offenses showing up again after posting 24 total runs through the first two games in this series, and I’m riding with a D-Backs offense that’s averaging 5.35 runs per game this year.
- The past five meetings between these teams have all cashed in the Over, with at least 13 runs in three of those contests.
Mets vs Diamondbacks trend
The D-Backs’ playoff charge is more than a mini hot streak — they’ve won 51 of their last 76 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Diamondbacks.
Mets vs Diamondbacks game info
| Location: | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Thursday, 8-29-2024 |
| First pitch: | 3:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNY, ARID |
| Mets starting pitcher: | David Peterson (8-1, 2.85 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Ryne Nelson (9-6, 4.29 ERA) |
Mets vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Mets vs Diamondbacks weather
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