The New York Yankees found a big win over the Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday to open up a tantalizing American League East series in the Bronx, and now they’ll look to lock up a victory in Gerrit Cole’s long-awaited return from injury.
After tearing through his rehab assignment, Cole will look to start hot out of the gates against an up-and-down Orioles offense, and he’ll be opposed by promising young lefty in Cade Povich.
Let’s get into what I think will be a low-scoring matchup with my Orioles vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, June 19.
Orioles vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Under 8 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
While it’s always a bit of a gamble to bet on a guy making his first big-league start in over eight months, I think Gerrit Cole has warranted respect. His fastball velocity was up at its normal heights during his rehab assignment, which saw him spin 12 1/3 innings of one-run ball with 19 strikeouts, and he continued to display expert command of the zone with no walks over the course of his outings.
Cole will meet a Baltimore Orioles team which has been good of late but very inconsistent, considering they’ve produced a spicy Isolated Power over .200 in the last two weeks but one which has come along with a strikeout rate near 24%. Given their strikeout rate and swing rate are both in the Top 10, we can safely classify Baltimore as a free-swinging bunch and reasonably project Cole to pitch deep enough in this game even on a pitch count.
With his strikeout prowess still incredibly evident, I think there’s an easy way in for him to dominate Baltimore, just as he dominated almost about every opponent amidst his Cy Young Award-winning 2023.
The New York Yankees, meanwhile, will likely be without Aaron Judge here after he was hit by a pitch on the hand Tuesday, which will mean one of the worst hitters in baseball – Trent Grisham – will take his place in the outfield. The Yankees have been below .500 with Grisham in the lineup, due to the overwhelming delta between him and Judge or Juan Soto, and that should set things up nicely for Cade Povich.
The left-hander pitched a bit better than his line would indicate in his major-league debut, with walks ultimately doing him in. While this has been an issue for the prospect throughout his career, he did make it through six scoreless in his second start against Atlanta without issuing a free pass and generating more ground balls to boot.
I believe in the left-hander’s talent, and believe in him enough here to back the Under in a game which should feature some brilliance from Cole.
Orioles vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8.5
Gerrit Cole Over 5.5 strikeouts
Cade Povich 4+ strikeouts
Jose Trevino 1+ hit
It’s time to get a little creative here when it comes to this parlay given the pitcher-friendly nature I’m expecting here, and with the lines available on the total. I’ll pay up for the 8.5 here with the eight runs unavailable as a parlay option, but to juice up the odds I’ll be adding an additional leg.
We know Cole should dominate in the strikeout department given the recent run of form from the Orioles and his stellar rehab appearances, so let’s move over to Povich. He did strike out six Braves over six frames last time out and put up a very impressive 32.5% punchout rate down in Triple-A this season, so I have no doubts about him hitting this alternative number. New York’s been trending in the wrong direction with a 22.3% strikeout rate over the past week, has hit worse versus lefties, and will now be missing Judge on top of all that.
I do like Jose Trevino in this lineup, however. He’s quietly caught fire at the plate, hitting over .300 in his last 10 games, which even includes some pinch-hit appearances. He’s been one of New York’s best options against southpaws this season, hitting .250. That will take this parlay into an exciting territory.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Orioles vs Yankees odds
Orioles vs Yankees live odds
Orioles vs Yankees opening odds
- Run line: Baltimore +1.5 | New York -1.5
- Moneyline: Baltimore +151 | New York -165
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Orioles vs Yankees spread and Over/Under analysis
- The money has been pouring in on the Orioles, who opened close to +160 in this game and have been steadily bet down to +130 as of early Wednesday afternoon.
- The total has seen similar movement, opening at 9 and flying all the way down to 8 and even 7.5 at some shops.
- DraftKings is reporting that while 78% of the bets made on the moneyline have come in on the Yankees, they account for a slimmer 63% of the cash.
- The total has fallen by over a run, but just 34% of the tickets and 30% of the handle are on the Under.
DraftKings Early Win Payout: Up 2 = Win!
Make your moneyline bets less of a sweat with DraftKings' EWP, where every day you can get one MLB moneyline bet paid out immediately — as soon as your team goes up by 2+ runs
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2024.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Orioles vs Yankees trend
The Yankees have hit the Run Line in 37 of their last 58 games (+21.00 Units / 31% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Yankees
Orioles vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Wednesday, 6-19-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MASN, Amazon Prime Video |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Cade Povich (0-1, 4.76 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Gerrit Cole (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
Orioles vs Yankees latest injuries
Orioles vs Yankees weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
