A trip to the National League Championship Series is on the line Friday, October 11, with the San Diego Padres visiting the Los Angeles Dodgers for Game 5.
The New York Mets await tonight’s winner, and my top MLB picks and Padres vs. Dodgers predictions are expecting another high-scoring game in the series finale between the NL West rivals.
For more analysis of this must-win Game 5, check out our Padres vs. Dodgers props.
Padres vs Dodgers prediction
Who will win Padres vs Dodgers Game 5?
It’s been a back-and-forth NLDS, and the Padres have the more experienced starter in Yu Darvish, and he’s also coming off a solid start in Game 2. Additionally, the Los Angeles bullpen has negative regression ahead of its unsustainably high 97.7% strand rate in the series, and its tidy 2.66 ERA is also way below its 4.59 xFIP.
San Diego pulls off the road upset thanks to a big night at the dish.
My Padres vs Dodgers best bet
Over 7.5
(-115 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
This will be the second start of the series for both San Diego Padres righty Yu Darvish and Los Angeles Dodgers rookie Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Their respective results were quite different, too.
Darvish held the Dodgers in check allowing just a single run across seven innings, while Yamamoto was roughed up to the tune of five runs across just three frames. I’m expecting more of the same from the rookie righty against the Friars, and Darvish having a tougher time navigating the Dodgers lineup Friday.
The Dodgers and Padres both send out elite offenses against right-handed hurlers and rank second and fourth, respectively, in wOBA. Additionally, there have been eight or more runs in each of the first four games of the series with an average of 10.75 per night.
The two teams finished the season strong, too. The Dodgers paced the majors in wOBA (.362) while averaging 6.23 runs per game in September, while the Padres posted a seventh-ranked .320 wOBA with 4.17 runs per in the final month.
I also value San Diego having the lowest strikeout percentage (17.8%), and Los Angeles has the second-highest walk rate (10.0%) against righties.
Padres vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 7.5
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 1.5 earned runs allowed
Freddie Freeman 2+ H+R+RBI
The Padres have been aggressive at the dish with 14 runs in the first three innings during the series, and perhaps even more encouraging, they have maintained their discipline at the dish with a playoff-low 16.7 K%.
San Diego also paces the playoffs with 11 home runs and a .226 ISO. It’s a tough matchup for Yamamoto, and as highlighted, he struggled in the series opener.
While Freddie Freeman missed Game 4 to nurse an ankle injury, he’s expected to be back in the lineup tonight, and I’m expecting him to have a strong showing at the dish.
To start, he’s teed off on right-handed pitchers this season with a .385 wOBA, .203 ISO and .904 OPS, and Freeman is no stranger to facing Darvish. The duo have stared each other down 39 times, and Freeman sports a solid .257/.333/.514 slash line with a pair of home runs.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Padres vs Dodgers odds
Padres vs Dodgers live odds
Padres vs Dodgers opening odds
- Moneyline: San Diego +123 | Los Angeles -133
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 | Los Angeles -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Padres vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- There has been back-and-forth action on this moneyline at both Pinnacle and bet365.
- Pinnacle moved the Dodgers as steep as -146 after opening at -133. The number has settled at -138 as of Friday morning. The adjustments have been similar at bet365, with the shop moving off the opening Los Angeles -140 to -150 before returning to the opening offering of -140.
- This total has also been moving between 7.5 and 8 at both shops, and I’m not surprised to see the movement to the Over given how many runs have been put on the board through the first four games of the series.
Padres vs Dodgers trend
There have been eight or more runs in each of the first four games of the series between the Padres and Dodgers with an average of 10.75 per night. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Dodgers.
Padres vs Dodgers Game 5 info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Friday, 10-11-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:08 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Yu Darvish (7-3, 3.31 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Yoshinobu Yamamoto (7-2, 3.00 ERA) |
Padres vs Dodgers latest injuries
Padres vs Dodgers weather
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