The Atlanta Braves host the Philadelphia Phillies tonight in the first game of a crucial three-game series between NL East foes. Philadelphia holds a seven-game lead over Atlanta in the division heading into the set at Truist Park.
The Phillies won four straight games prior to a loss on Sunday, while the Braves are coming off two straight wins.
Who will come out on top in the series opener? Read on for my Phillies vs. Braves predictions and MLB picks for Tuesday, August 20.
Phillies vs Braves prediction
My best bet
Zack Wheeler Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-160 at BetMGM)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler is the only one really threatening the Atlanta Braves’ Chris Sale in the NL Cy Young Award odds this season. Wheeler is 12-5 with a 2.72 ERA across 148 2/3 innings in 24 starts this season. He’s been very consistent as the Phillies’ ace, as you might be able to tell by this line.
The veteran righthander has gone Under 2.5 earned runs in 19 of his starts this season, including 14 starts with just one earned run or fewer. He threw six shutout innings against the Braves back on Opening Day, allowing only five hits with five strikeouts and no walks.
Wheeler has had a few hiccups here and there but his dominance has been clear over the past three months. Since May 17, he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in 13 of his 15 starts. Granted, those two outliers were crooked numbers with the Orioles and Yankees putting up eight and seven runs, respectively.
However, this Braves lineup isn’t as dangerous as it once was. Of course, Ronald Acuna Jr. is out for the season, Ozzie Albies is on the IL, and Austin Riley joined them after being hit by a pitch on Sunday. Marcell Ozuna is a looming threat in the middle of the lineup, but the support isn’t quite there.
Wheeler has allowed a total of three earned runs in his last three starts against the Braves, including two earned in 6 1/3 innings in last year’s NLDS.
The Phillies took three of four against the Nationals over the weekend and have a great chance to keep the momentum going with Wheeler on the mound in Atlanta.
Phillies vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)
Zack Wheeler Under 2.5 earned runs allowed
Zack Wheeler 6+ strikeouts
Phillies moneyline
I’m rolling with a safer same-game parlay tonight while focusing on Wheeler. He’s recorded at least six strikeouts in 17 of his 24 starts, including exactly six in five outings.
The Phillies have been the best team in the NL East (if not the league) for most of the season and that should continue this week in Atlanta.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Phillies vs Braves odds
Phillies vs Braves live odds
Phillies vs Braves opening odds
- Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 | Atlanta +1.5
- Moneyline: Philadelphia -135 | Atlanta +124
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Phillies vs Braves spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Phillies opened around -130 but have been bet up to as high as -150 as of late Tuesday morning.
- The Braves are as big as +130 home underdogs after opening around +110.
- The total is set at either 8 or 8.5 depending on the book.
Phillies vs Braves trend
The Phillies have hit the F5 moneyline in 63 of their last 109 games (+13.00 Units / 7% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Braves.
Phillies vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Cumberland, GA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 8-20-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Zack Wheeler (12-5, 2.72 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Reynaldo Lopez (7-4, 2.06 ERA) |
Phillies vs Braves latest injuries
Phillies vs Braves weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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