The second installment of this three-game NL series gets underway tonight with the Chicago Cubs hosting the Philadelphia Phillies at Wrigley Field.
MLB odds have Philadelphia as a slight -135 favorite, and my Phillies vs. Cubs predictions are bullish on the rocking chalk, primarily due to the pitching matchup.
Read on for my MLB picks for Wednesday, July 3.
Phillies vs Cubs prediction
My best bet
Phillies -1.5 (+145 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Philadelphia Phillies hand the ball to right-hander Zack Wheeler on Wednesday evening, and he should be a good candidate to back. Wheeler is 9-4 through 17 starts this season with a commanding 2.73 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.
The right-hander's underlying metrics suggest that regression is unlikely as he ranks in the 85th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. This success is likely to continue against the Chicago Cubs, a team in which Wheeler boasts a 2.56 ERA and 1.04 WHIP against over the past five meetings.
Following Wheeler is one of the best bullpens in baseball, as Philadelphia’s relief staff ranks in the top five in ERA, FIP, and xFIP. This pitching staff is likely to receive plenty of run support as the Phillies rank in the Top 6 in runs scored per game, hits per game, OPS, and home runs.
That success at the dish is likely to continue against left-hander Shota Imanaga, who gets the ball for Chicago. Despite posting a 3.07 ERA, the rookie southpaw owns a 3.48 xERA and ranks in the bottom half of the league in xBA, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
Not only does Philadelphia boast the starting pitching advantage, but it also possesses a better offense and bullpen.
Phillies vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Phillies -1.5
Over 7.5
Trea Turner Over 0.5 hits
While I’m backing Wheeler to shut down the Cubs, they are still capable of putting up a couple of runs. That is all we need to reach eight as Philadelphia should have no problem plating five-to-six.
A highly correlated outcome of the Phillies covering and the Over hitting most likely means Trea Turner recording a hit in the process, as the Phillies shortstop has hit safely in 12 of his last 14 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Phillies vs Cubs odds
Phillies vs Cubs live odds
Phillies vs Cubs opening odds
- Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 (+135) | Chicago +1.5 (-160)
- Moneyline: Philadelphia -135 | Chicago +110
- Over/Under: Over 8 (+100) | Under 8 (-130)
Phillies vs Cubs spread and Over/Under analysis
- Philadelphia opened as a -135 favorite and has since been bet down to -125.
- The Phillies have hit the moneyline in 48 of their last 69 games (+15.45 Units / 13% ROI).
- The total opened at eight but has now dropped down to 7.5.
- Philadelphia has hit the F5 team total Over in 45 of its last 67 games (+19.55 Units / 24% ROI).
Phillies vs Cubs trend
Philadelphia has won seven of its past 10 games, with six of those seven coming by at least a two-run margin. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Cubs
Phillies vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Wednesday, 7-3-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC Sports Philadelphia, Marquee |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Zack Wheeler (9-4, 2.73 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Shota Imanaga (7-2, 3.07 ERA) |
Phillies vs Cubs latest injuries
Phillies vs Cubs weather
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