It’s the rubber match of a three-game set between the Philadelphia Phillies and Baltimore Orioles, and the last time they’ll meet this season – unless it’s in the World Series.
It’s not a far-fetched scenario, as Philadelphia owns the best record in the National League, with Baltimore boasting the second-best record in the American League.
Our free Phillies vs. Orioles predictions and MLB picks detail a dandy pitching matchup, and a call to target the Under.
Phillies vs Orioles prediction
My best bet
Under 7 (-110 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The Philadelphia Phillies and the Baltimore Orioles dot the top of the charts for most pitching and hitting categories, with records just behind the MLB-best New York Yankees.
Baltimore is second in runs scored and leads all of baseball with 110 home runs, a big reason they rank first in slugging percentage. The Phillies are right there in fourth in runs scored and on-base percentage, and sixth in home runs.
Pitching-wise, the O’s are second in the bigs with a collective 3.07 ERA, just a few ticks better than the Phils at 3.10. Baltimore leads all of baseball in strikeouts, with the Phils in 11th. The Orioles also rank second in WHIP and opponents’ batting average, but Philadelphia is elite too, with Top 5 totals.
Baltimore will send out righty Corbin Burnes on Sunday, looking to improve on a 7-2 record. He has a sparkling 2.08 ERA (T-4th) and is inside the Top 25 among starters in strikeouts.
Burnes has picked up wins in four of his last five straight starts. He’s pitched into the seventh in the last three, allowing just one earned run across those games. Last time out, he scattered five hits over seven strong in a 5-2 win over Tampa, surrendering no earned runs and striking out six.
Philadelphia counters with veteran Zack Wheeler, who enters this with an 8-3 record, tied for the sixth-most wins in baseball with a sixth-best 2.16 ERA. His 95 strikeouts rank inside the Top 10.
Like Burnes, Wheeler has registered wins in four of his last five starts, allowing a total of five earned runs in that span. He’s coming off a gem against the Red Sox, giving up three hits and one earned run over seven strong, striking out four in a 4-1 win.
The teams have combined to score eight runs in each of the first two games of this series. The outstanding pitching matchup should see that number significantly lower on Sunday in what should be a great finale.
Phillies vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7
Anthony Santander Over 0.5 hits
Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 total bases
Let's chase some long odds in this reverse-correlation parlay.
Anthony Santander is coming off a bombs-away effort Saturday, homering twice in Baltimore’s 6-2 win. Santander has now collected at least a hit in 15 of his last 18 games, including five multi-hit games. He has only three at-bats against Wheeler in his career but has hit a double off him. I like him continuing to rake Sunday.
Saturday was the first time in a long time anyone has been able to cool off Kyle Schwarber. The Phillies leadoff man went 0-for-4 Saturday, dousing his seven-game hit streak. Prior to that, Schwarber had multi-hit efforts in four of his previous five games, piling up seven RBIs, including his 14th home run of the year in the series opener.
While he is hitting 2-for-13 against Burnes, it shouldn’t deter you from rolling this prop into your parlay. One of those hits is a home run, and he’s also drawn four walks, so he’s been seeing the ball well in this matchup.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Phillies vs Orioles odds
Phillies vs Orioles live odds
Phillies vs Orioles opening odds
- Run line: Philadelphia +1.5 | Baltimore -1.5
- Moneyline: Philadelphia +114 | Baltimore -123
- Over/Under: Over 7 | Under 7
Phillies vs Orioles spread and Over/Under analysis
- Baltimore is 7-3 in its last 10 overall.
- Philadelphia is tied for the most road wins in the National League (20).
- The Phillies have seen the Over go 3-0-1 in their last four.
- The Under is 6-3-1 in the last 10 head-to-head matchups.
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Phillies vs Orioles trend
Baltimore is 21-13-0 as a moneyline favorite at home this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Orioles
Phillies vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Sunday, 6-16-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS-PHI, MASN |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Zack Wheeler (8-3, 2.16 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Corbin Burnes (7-2, 2.08 ERA) |
Phillies vs Orioles latest injuries
Phillies vs Orioles weather
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