The Philadelphia Phillies look to even up this series tonight against the Minnesota Twins after last night’s rout despite a rain delay.
Our Phillies vs Twins predictions do not expect a similar outburst tonight.
Read on for my best free MLB picks before the first pitch at 7:40 ET on Tuesday, July 22.
Phillies vs Twins prediction
My best bet
First five innings Under 4 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Minnesota Twins capitalized against Philadelphia Phillies starter Ranger Suarez last night, knocking him out of the game in the sixth inning largely thanks to a two-run fifth. It was not too surprising given Suarez has failed to get through six innings in four straight starts.
And even against that expected liability, Minnesota managed only three runs through five innings.
Tonight, Philadelphia turns to righthander Zack Wheeler, an upgrade compared to Suarez. In his last four starts, Wheeler has averaged more than six innings, his ERA has hung at 2.19, and his WHIP has looked stellar at 0.93.
The Twins’ bats should struggle as long as Wheeler remains atop the mound, presumably at least twice through the batting order.
Minnesota right-hander Simeon Woods Richardson does not garner the same recognition, nor should he. But he is pitching well enough to encourage this bold play, bold in that Under 4.5 is more widely available but at significantly higher juice (-132 at FanDuel).
Wheeler may hold the Twins to just one run, if that, in the first five innings. To be conservative in this approach, assume one run. Can Woods Richardson hold the Phillies to no more than three runs? Yes, that risks a push, but it is the question at hand, nonetheless, as that is the risk welcomed by a price 27 cents better.
In his last five starts, Woods Richardson has given up no more than three runs, lasting at least five innings in all but one of them. Woods Richardson can be doubted a touch in this matchup, but with faith in Wheeler, that doubt is not enough to dissuade this best bet.
Phillies vs Twins same-game parlay (SGP)
F5 Under 4
Simeon Woods Richardson Over 15.5 outs
Zack Wheeler Under 1.5 earned runs
How much explanation could this possibly need? Woods Richardson has recorded at least 16 outs in four of his last five games and six of his last seven. Only twice did his pitch count get into the upper 90s.
He is disciplined enough to work through this Philadelphia lineup while Wheeler dazzles once more. In his last eight starts, he has stayed Under this earned runs prop five times.
While this entire same-game parlay is rather correlated, which knocks down the payout, its last two legs are creating value even at this +375 number.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Phillies vs Twins odds
Phillies vs Twins live odds
Phillies vs Twins opening odds
- Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 (+108) | Minnesota +1.5 (-130)
- Moneyline: Philadelphia -162 | Minnesota +136
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-122) | Under 7.5 (+100)
Phillies vs Twins spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Twins opened at -130 as +1.5 underdogs, juice that initially fell after their 7-2 win last night but then buoyed throughout Tuesday morning to -137.
- The total opened at only 7.5 before last night’s offensive outburst from Minnesota’s bats boosted it to 8.
- It should be noted that Philadelphia has lost five of its last seven games outright despite being favored in all seven games.
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Phillies vs Twins trend
The Phillies have won the first five innings in 55 of their last 85 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Twins.
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Phillies vs Twins game info
| Location: | Target Field, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Tuesday, 7-23-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC Sports Philadelphia, Bally Sports North |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Zack Wheeler (10-4, 2.70 ERA) |
| Twins starting pitcher: | Simeon Woods Richardson (3-1, 3.51 ERA) |
Phillies vs Twins latest injuries
Phillies vs Twins weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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