All eyes turn to the Paul Skenes show as the precocious hurler leads his Pittsburgh Pirates (56-59) against the Los Angeles Dodgers (67-49). Pittsburgh could use a good outing from Skenes after dropping Game 1 of the series on Friday, marking a fifth straight loss.
I take a look at the total with my Pirates vs. Dodgers predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, August 10.
Pirates vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Under 8 (-108 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Pittsburgh Pirates starter Paul Skenes doesn’t just retire batters — he mows them down. The rookie has a pretty 1.99 ERA heading into Saturday and the underlying metrics are all strong. His 2.59 xERA, 2.70 FIP, and 2.68 xFIP don’t indicate major regression is coming and he essentially does everything well, striking out a ton of batters while limiting walks and hard contact.
A matchup against the Los Angeles Dodgers is typically viewed as a difficult one, but L.A. hasn’t been performing at its usual standards at the plate recently, ranking 22nd in wRC+ (97) and wOBA (.303) against RHP in the last 15 days.
Skenes has been downright unbeatable on the road, notching a 0.96 ERA and 0.72 WHIP across 37 1/3 innings. Add both numbers up and you still end up with an elite pitcher. Take them in isolation and you have a marvel of pitching wonder.
His counterpart is Dodgers rookie River Ryan, an 11th-round pick in the 2021 MLB Draft out of UNC Pembroke. He’s risen through the minors with effectiveness at nearly every level.
River has been running smoothly in the big leagues with a 1.72 ERA through his first three starts. It’s still a small sample size and his 4.53 xERA indicates obvious regression is due, but his 3.94 FIP is impressive for a rookie.
One reason for optimism going forward is that he’s been superb at suppressing hard contact with an 83.8 mph average exit velocity and 24.4% hard-hit rate. Both figures would rank among the best in the MLB if he had enough innings to qualify. The obvious caveat is that he doesn’t, and therefore we’re dealing with a small sample size, but THE BAT does project him with a decent 4.24 ERA.
Pittsburgh is far from a fearsome lineup with the third-worst wRC+ (85) and second-worst wOBA (.291) against RHP. I’ll take the Under in a game featuring two impressive rookie starting pitchers.
Paul Skenes player prop
My best bet
Paul Skenes Under 6.5 strikeouts (+120 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Taking the Under on a Skenes strikeout prop is always a scary proposition, but that’s why there may be a small bit of value. Everyone wants to play the Over on Skenes’ Ks as it has been a fun — and profitable — venture up until recently.
The Dodgers, however, are not an easy team to punch out. Their numbers recently may not show it, but those are misleading considering Freddie Freeman was absent for a handful of games. His presence in the lineup makes a large difference as he’s one of the hardest hitters to strike out in the MLB.
Dave Roberts can field a lineup where more than half of the players have a K-rate of 20% or below. Considering Skenes went Under 6.5 strikeouts in each of his last two starts — both against teams who avoid punch-outs (Arizona, Houston) — I’ll bet on another Under rolling through.
Pirates vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8
Paul Skenes Under 6.5 strikeouts
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 total bases
This may seem like a counterintuitive SGP, but that’s also why it results in such juicy plus-money odds. Consider this one a calculated risk.
Shohei Ohtani is simply too effective against RHP for me to pass up a play on his total bases prop. The unreal slugger has a 200 wRC+ and .456 wOBA against RHP at Dodger Stadium this year and can still have a solid day at the plate without this game going Over the total, so I don’t find the legs to be as counterintuitive as they initially seem.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Pirates vs Dodgers odds
Pirates vs Dodgers live odds
Pirates vs Dodgers opening odds
- Run line: Pittsburgh -1.5 | Los Angeles +1.5
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh -116 | Los Angeles +107
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Pirates vs Dodgers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Pittsburgh is a tough out when Skenes is on the mound, coming away victorious in nine of his 14 starts.
- That being said, this matchup has been dominated by the Dodgers. L.A. is 16-4 in its last 20 home games against the Pirates.
- L.A. has cashed the Under in each of Ryan’s three starts.
Pirates vs Dodgers trend
Pittsburgh is 3-6 O/U in Skenes' last nine starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Dodgers.
Pirates vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, 8-10-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNP, SNLA |
| Pirates starting pitcher: | Paul Skenes (6-1, 1.90 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | River Ryan (1-0, 0.82 ERA) |
Pirates vs Dodgers latest injuries
Pirates vs Dodgers weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
