MLB Player Props for 8-29: Best Bets for Ryne Nelson, Julian Aguiar, & Charlie Morton

Charlie Morton is still occasionally effective and he's far from a total dud when he takes the mound, but at 40, he's not pitching to his peak. This bodes poorly tonight in our MLB player props when he faces a potent Phillies lineup.

Neil Parker • Betting Analyst

Aug 29, 2024 • 13:11 ET • 4 min read

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

There are 11 games on the diamond today, and our top MLB player props have you covered for the action with a trio of pitcher picks.

These recommendations include betting against Atlanta Braves veteran Charlie Morton in a tough road start against the Philadelphia Phillies, and fading Cincinnati Reds rookie Julian Aguiar in his third big-league start.

MLB props for August 29

Ryne Nelson Under 5.5 strikeouts (-128 at BetMGM)
Julian Aguiar Under 16.5 outs (-115 at BetRivers)
Charlie Morton Under 17.5 outs (-104 at Caesars)

Today’s best MLB props

Prop bet #1: Ryne Nelson Under 5.5 strikeouts

-128 at BetMGM

Arizona Diamondbacks righty Ryne Nelson has been dealing across his past five starts with a tidy 2.56 ERA, 0.85 WHIP 2.92 xFIP, and he’s been missing bats to boot. His 10.8 K/9 and 31.7 K% are high-end marks. It’s just that the sudden across-the-board improvement has him overperforming by leaps and bounds compared to his numbers across his first 17 appearances this season and my MLB picks aren't fully buying in.

Nelson posted a modest 6.41 K/9 and 16.4 K% with a 4.85 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and 4.46 xFIP to start the campaign, and I anticipate him landing somewhere in the middle of the highlighted statistics this afternoon. The New York Mets also sport a middling 22.3 K% with an 11th-ranked .318 wOBA and ninth-ranked .319 on-base percentage against righties for the season.

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Prop bet #2: Julian Aguiar Under 16.5 outs

-115 at BetRivers

The Oakland Athletics are being undervalued at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. Cincinnati Reds righty Julian Aguiar is making just his third big-league start, and his minor-league numbers hardly impress. A 4.40 ERA and 4.91 xFIP across nine Triple-A starts is nothing to write home about, and the rookie has been unsustainably lucky through his first two starts for the Reds.

Aguiar has held opposing batters to a .189 batting average and .172 BABIP while stranding baserunners at an 85.4% clip. Those numbers have serious negative regression ahead, and while Oakland isn’t a nightmare matchup, the A's rank fifth with a 9.6 BB% and 17th with a .313 on-base percentage in August. It all adds up to Aguiar’s pitch count climbing quickly, and Oakland making him sweat. The weather forecast has temperatures cooking in the 88.1 to 92.9 °F range, too.

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Prop bet #3: Charlie Morton Under 17.5 outs

-104 at Caesars

Citizens Bank Park has been tough for visiting starters, and Atlanta Braves righty Charlie Morton has failed to complete six innings in four of his past six trips to the hill. Pair his 4.62 road ERA with the Philadelphia Phillies sporting a high-end .335 wOBA and .336 on-base percentage at home, and Morton will be pitching from the stretch early and often tonight.

Father Time is catching up with the 40-year-old righty, and Morton’s been squared up for a 10.3% barrel rate and 39.3% hard-hit rate this season. Both are up from his 2023 marks, and those respective rates are also up to 16.1% and 42.9% across his past four starts.

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Neil Parker

Betting Analyst

Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs with Sportsbook Review, USA TODAY, theScore, DraftKings Playbook, and RotoWire, among many others. He also co-hosted the Daily Fantasy Edge podcast and can now be seen offering expert golf and hockey advice on Covers’ Before you Bet broadcast.

Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.

Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.

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