After missing almost two years due to injuries, Los Angeles Dodgers hurler Walker Buehler hasn't looked the same since returning to action.
My latest MLB picks are fading Buehler against a high-scoring Baltimore Orioles squad tonight while backing Oakland A's righty Osvaldo Bido and Milwaukee Brewers catcher William Contreras. Here are my three favorite MLB player props for Wednesday, August 28.
MLB props for August 28
- Bido Over 4.5 strikeouts (-110 at bet365)
- William Contreras Over 1.5 total bases (+130 at bet365)
- Buehler Over 2.5 earned runs (-105 at DraftKings)
Today’s best MLB props
Prop bet #1: Osvaldo Bido Over 4.5 strikeouts
Osvaldo Bido has looked impressive since making the move from the bullpen to the rotation for the Oakland A's. The sophomore right-hander sits in the Top 3 percentile of all pitchers in barrel rate, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate, and his xERA is just 2.81.
Today, Bido takes on a mediocre Cincinnati Reds lineup that ranks 24th in the majors in strikeout rate (24.6%). The O/U on Bido's strikeouts is currently set at 4.5, with the Over listed at -110. Not only has Bido eclipsed that number in his last six starts, but he has fanned 6+ batters in five of those outings.
Prop bet #2: William Contreras Over 1.5 total bases
Milwaukee Brewers catcher William Contreras is on the path toward winning back-to-back Silver Slugger Awards. The All-Star backstop is slashing .281/.358/.458 while racking up 230 total bases in 127 games.
He's been even better this month, slugging .605 with 52 total bases through 23 games, and now faces a plus matchup at home against the San Francisco Giants.
The Giants are sending Kyle Harrison to the hill, and the southpaw has a 4.61 ERA with an OBA of .269 on the road. Harrison is in the bottom 15th percentile in hard-hit rate, exit velocity, and barrel rate, which has resulted in an expected ERA of 4.78. Contreras bats .325 with the platoon advantage, and he should have another big game tonight.
Prop bet #3: Walker Buehler Over 2.5 earned runs
Walker Buehler used to be one of the most reliable pitchers in the NL. However, after Tommy John surgery wiped out his entire 2023 campaign, he's been a shell of his former self. The Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander has pitched to a 6.09 ERA with a 1.67 WHIP through 10 starts this season, and he has a tough matchup today against the hard-hitting Baltimore Orioles.
The O's are third in the majors in OPS (.765) on the road while plating 5.22 runs per game. Baltimore's lineup also has seven hitters with the platoon advantage against Buehler, which could be crucial since the Dodgers hurler allows lefties to slash .372/.429/.638.
With Buehler allowing more than 2.5 earned runs in eight of 10 starts this year, take the Over 2.5 on his earned runs tonight.
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Today’s MLB games
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