The Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox wrap up a nail-biting four-game set on May 16 at Fenway Park, with the hosts fighting for a split.
My Rays vs. Red Sox prediction doesn't see that happening, as my MLB picks explain why I think Tampa Bay takes this one.
Rays vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Rays moneyline (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
With these teams sitting on almost identical records, it’s easy to understand why the sportsbooks have pegged today’s clash as a coin flip. But that somewhat overlooks The Tampa Bay Rays' stranglehold on this matchup in recent times.
The Rays were 11-2 against the Boston Red Sox last season and gutted out two wins here this week. In fact, you have to go back to 2018 for the last time Boston edged a season series against Tampa Bay.
The overall formbook points to the visitors, too, with signs of a bounce-back this month for Kevin Cash’s men, while the Red Sox have faltered with series losses to the Minnesota Twins and Atlanta Braves.
The pitching matchup has a few layers to it. Rays starter Zack Littell has been solid this year with a 3.02 ERA through eight starts, but I’m equally intrigued by Tampa's knowledge of Cooper Criswell, who was with Tampa Bay last season — largely as a reliever. I like that level of familiarity for the visitors, despite Criswell’s 2.10 ERA.
With the Red Sox sliding to a 4-8 record in their last 12 games, the Rays look like good value in this spot. The visitors have covered the run line nine times over their past 12 contests, and I see them improving their road record tonight.
Rays vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Rays moneyline
Rays Over 4.5 runs
Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 total bases
The Rays have posted a .242 batting average this season — sixth-best in the American League — and I like their offense to make some noise tonight against Criswell, who hasn’t pitched beyond the fifth inning this season, and test the Boston bullpen.
The visitors haven’t served up many dud outings at the plate over the past week, scoring at least four runs in each of their past five contests, and I’m grabbing the plus odds for Tampa Bay to put five or more runs on the board in this series finale.
I’m also taking a Yandy Diaz prop. He wasn’t at his prolific best in April, but he’s rebounded since then, hitting safely in 10 of his last 12 games and posting a .321 batting average with a .867 OPS this month.
I see Diaz having another big night at the plate here. He’s already crushed nine doubles in 2024, and he was the sparkplug for Tampa Bay in last night’s victory.
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Rays vs Red Sox odds
Rays vs Red Sox live odds
Rays vs Red Sox opening odds
- Run line: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-220) | Boston -1.5 (+180)
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay -110 | Boston -110
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)
Rays vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- It’s been a tight series so far between two evenly-matched teams, but the Rays’ bats have looked sharper this month on the way to an 8-5 mark in May.
- Though the Red Sox have won each of Criswell’s past five starts, Littell has won his last two starts for Tampa Bay, and he’s pitched into the sixth inning in each of his last five appearances.
- The Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these teams, and it’s been a winner in nine of Boston’s last 10 games.
- Only one of the three matchups in this series has gone past an 8.5-run O/U — that’s the line tonight, and I’m predicting a slight Over, with both line-ups finally getting on a roll.
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Rays vs Red Sox trend
With the bats going cold, the Red Sox have hit the team total Under in 10 of their last 12 contests. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Red Sox
Rays vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Thursday, 5-16-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSSUN, NESN |
| Rays starting pitcher: | Zack Littel (2-2, 3.02 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Cooper Criswell (2-1, 2.10 ERA) |
Rays vs Red Sox latest injuries
Rays vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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