The Boston Red Sox head to Minute Maid Park on Monday to face the Houston Astros. Boston will be looking to avenge being swept at home by Houston last weekend, and time is ticking with the Red Sox 3.5 games back of the final AL Wild Card spot.
Houston is first in the AL West and sends rolling lefty Yusei Kikuchi to the mound. Boston will counter with struggling Tanner Houck, who will be the target of my Red Sox vs. Astros predictions and MLB picks below.
Red Sox vs Astros prediction
My best bet
Tanner Houck Under 4.5 strikeouts (+111 at Pinnacle)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Boston Red Sox righty Tanner Houck hasn’t been racking up the strikeouts with a pedestrian 5.4 K/9 and 13.3 strikeout rate across his past eight outings. Those marks are considerably lower than his 8.8 and 24.3% rates across his first 16 outings, and the dip also aligns with him already tossing a career-high 146 2/3 innings this season.
Opposing hitters are swinging at fewer pitches outside the strike zone and connecting on more pitches inside the zone during the noted eight-start stretch, per FanGraphs, and his swinging-strike percentage has also dropped from 10.3% to 8.6%. Simply put, he’s pitching more to contact.
It’s also been a bit of a problem, with Houck climbing to a 4.98 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, and 4.92 xFIP across his past eight appearances after posting respective 2.18, .097, and 3.00 marks to start the year.
This is also a tough road start. The Houston Astros are 10th in the Big Leagues with a .326 wOBA and 12th-lowest 21.9 K% against righties. I also value Houston facing Houck on August 9, with him fanning just a single batter across six tidy innings.
The right-handed Houck has had reverse splits during his recent slump, and the Astros run out a righty-heavy lineup. Right-handed hitters mashed to the tune of a .379 wOBA and .409 OBP against him during the eight-start run, while lefties have respective .297 and .286 marks.
Red Sox vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Astros moneyline
Over 8
Tanner Houch Under 4.5 strikeouts
The Red Sox have been solid against lefties this season, but they’ve also been a little lucky with the third-highest BABIP (.326). Boston also strikes out the most in baseball against southpaws (27.8 K%). Add Houck’s highlighted recent struggles, the market moving in Houston's direction, and I like the home team winning the series opener on Monday.
Still, I do expect Boston to do some damage against Houston starter Yusei Kikuchi. The Red Sox are trending to the Over, too, cashing it in 38 of their last 60 games. There's also a notable edge in the +465 odds available through DraftKings. This SGP is priced at just +387 at FanDuel, with the difference in numbers checking out as a positive expected value of 16%.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Red Sox vs Astros odds
Red Sox vs Astros live odds
Red Sox vs Astros opening odds
- Run line: Boston +1.5 (-200) | Houston -1.5 (+165)
- Moneyline: Boston +105 | Houston -125
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Red Sox vs Astros spread and Over/Under analysis
- As noted, the market is moving to the Houston side of this moneyline. The Astros opened at -116 through Pinnacle and are trading at -131 as of early Monday afternoon.
- There has been buyback on the Red Sox since opening, but even bet365 has moved from the initial Houston -125 offering to -130.
- This total opened at 8.5 through Pinnacle, but it has moved to the Over since the 8 number became available.
- There hasn’t been an adjustment to the odds through bet365. The shop opened with the Over 8 priced at -115 and that price remains as of early Monday afternoon.
Red Sox vs Astros trend
Tanner Houck has struck out four or fewer batters in six of his past eight starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Astros.
Red Sox vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Monday, 8-19-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NESN, SCHN |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Tanner Houck (8-8, 3.02 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Yusei Kikuchi (5-9, 4.62 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Astros latest injuries
Red Sox vs Astros weather
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