The Boston Red Sox (7-10) and Toronto Blue Jays (11-6) meet in AL East action at the Rogers Centre on Tuesday night.
In the first game of the series, Bo Bichette hit a grand slam to break an eighth-inning tie and eventually give the Blue Jays a 6-2 win.
Tuesday’s meeting marks the fifth game between these teams, with Toronto holding the 3-1 advantage. Nick Pivetta gets the call for the Red Sox, while Kevin Gausman is on the mound for the Blue Jays.
Check out our MLB picks and predictions for Red Sox vs. Jays on Tuesday, April 26.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The line opened Toronto -156 but has taken a significant amount of early steam. Toronto can currently be had from -179 to -200 depending on the book. The total opened at 8.5 but has moved to 8 across most books. There are some juiced 8.5 totals still available, however.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays predictions
Picks made on 4/26/2022 at 7:40 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Red Sox vs Blue Jays game info
• Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
• Date: Tuesday, April 26, 2022
• First pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
• TV: NESN, Sportsnet 1
Red Sox vs Blue Jays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Nick Pivetta (0-3, 10.03 ERA): It’s been an awful start to the season for Pivetta, who’s been shelled in each of his three starts. He allowed 4 earned in 5.2 innings against the Yankees, four earned in two innings to the Twins, and five earned in four innings to the Blue Jays.
His numbers are all up from his career averages, but chief among them is his walk rate. He’s allowing 6.94 walks per nine innings, and that’s an issue he’s had in his career (3.57 BB/9). His 26.7% HR/FB rate and 25.6% ground ball rate are due for some positive regression, but he’s been getting rocked.
Kevin Gausman (1-1, 2.89 ERA):The 31-year-old right-hander seems to be coming into his own as a very solid MLB pitcher. Gausman rekindled his career in San Francisco, where he had two very successful seasons and parlayed that into a deal with Toronto.
A year ago, he amassed a 14-6 record, 2.81 ERA, and an impressive 10.64 K/9 ratio. He faces the Red Sox in his last outing and dominated, allowing only one earned while striking out eight over eight innings.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Red Sox: Jonathan Arauz 2B (Out), Josh Taylor RP (Out).
Blue Jays: Cavan Biggio 2B (Out), Danny Jansen C (Out), Teoscar Hernandez RF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last five games as a favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
Red Sox vs Blue Jays picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The pitching advantage in this matchup lies with the Jays. Gausman is a very solid starter and has come into his own over the last two seasons. His success seems to have carried over to Toronto, as his 2.89 ERA and impressive peripherals indicate after three starts.
Nick Pivetta is on the bump for Boston and has had one of the worst starts to 2022 of any starting pitcher. In a year where the baseballs seem dead and low-scoring affairs happen across the league every night, Pivetta has found a way to an ERA over 10.
Things may turn around for Pivetta (he was decent in 2021, after all), but Tuesday offers a tough matchup against a terrific Toronto lineup. The Blue Jays are mashing at the plate, leading the majors in home runs (25) for the second straight year after knocking 262 a year ago. They rank in the Top 10 in wOBA and wRC+ while checking in at fifth in OPS (.738).
Boston’s bats have been cold to start the year, ranking 26th in wOBA and 27th in wRC+. The Red Sox are averaging only 3.58 runs per game, ranking 20th in the MLB. Notably, Trevor Story has gotten off to an icy cold start to his Red Sox tenure. Perhaps a day of rest Monday will prove beneficial for Story, who has a .592 OPS in his first 12 games in Boston.
Not only does Toronto possess a better lineup and better starting pitcher, but they also have a bullpen advantage. The Blue Jays have a stellar 2.65 ERA in relief, while the Red Sox are slightly above average with a 3.50 ERA.
The Blue Jays have the advantage in every facet of the game and are deserving favorites.
Prediction: Blue Jays moneyline (-179 at WynnBet)
Over/Under analysis
Gausman has been terrific yet again to begin 2022. He’s already faced this Red Sox lineup once and had no issues, allowing only one earned over eight straight innings his last time out. The Red Sox rank outside the Top 20 in nearly every major offensive statistic, so Gausman should be expected to continue his strong start on Tuesday.
Pivetta has struggled mightily to begin 2022, no doubt. His numbers are awful in every format and there’s no way around it. Still, Pivetaa was solid in 2021, and his 3.81 xERA and 4.53 ERA paint the picture that he may have even been a tad unlucky. He’s been an inconsistent pitcher throughout his career and hasn’t fixed his issue with walks. We’re not overly optimistic about his outlook, but it’s hard to be much worse than he’s been thus far.
Expect Boston manager Alex Cora to have a quick trigger if Pivetta struggles again early. Boston has some solid arms in the bullpen (3.50 ERA) to limit the damage if necessary.
It’s hard to take an Under with Pivetta on the mound and the Blue Jays on the other side, but the baseball is dead in 2022 and Gausman should effectively hold down this ice-cold Boston lineup. There are juiced 8.5 totals available at some books, but they’ll likely be off the board soon and therefore we will use Under 8 as the prediction.
Prediction: Under 8 (-104 at Unibet)
Best bet
The Blue Jays have a significant starting pitching advantage in this matchup between Gausman and Pivetta. They also have a much better lineup and a slightly better bullpen.
Naturally, I’m looking to back Toronto in this spot. I believe the best value lies in the runline, where plus money odds are being offered for Toronto to win by more than one run.
Backing the Blue Jays on the runline will be the best bet for Tuesday’s game.
Pick: Blue Jays runline -1.5 (+112 at FanDuel)
