The New York Mets will look to win a seventh straight game as they continue their push for a wild card when they host the Boston Red Sox tonight.
Our Red Sox vs. Mets predictions like that streak to continue despite Boston deploying its ace, Tanner Houck.
I break down the full matchup with my MLB picks for Wednesday, September 4 below.
Red Sox vs Mets prediction
My best bet
Mets moneyline (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The New York Mets and Boston Red Sox have seen their playoff fortunes move in opposite directions over the last week. New York is surging while Boston continues to fall out of the American League wild-card race.
Red Sox starter Tanner Houck is 8-9 with a 3.12 ERA in 27 starts this season. The All-Star has allowed only 10 homers and has improved his control, though that has come with a drop in his strikeout rate to 7.8 per nine innings. But despite not finishing as many hitters this year, Houck is finding success after a tough 2023 that saw his ERA balloon to 5.01.
Houck’s success hasn’t translated to wins for the Red Sox as of late, however. The righty had six starts in August and Boston won just one of those games, while Houck himself hasn’t picked up a win since July 11, when he threw six shutout innings against the Oakland Athletics.
Since that start, Houck hasn’t been the same pitcher. He’s 0-3 with a 4.53 ERA over eight outings with opponents posting a .782 OPS over that period. While Houck looked good in his last start against the Detroit Tigers, he’ll be hard-pressed to repeat that performance against Francisco Lindor and a Mets lineup firing on all cylinders.
The Mets would surely be a favorite in this game if it wasn’t for the fact that they are starting Tylor Megill. Megill has never found sustained success since coming to the majors in 2021 and has gone 3-5 with a 4.82 ERA this year while splitting time between the majors and Triple-A.
Still, Megill looked solid in a soft return to the majors last week against the Chicago White Sox, going 5 1/3 innings and allowing one run. He should be able to do enough to turn the ball over to a capable bullpen after keeping the Mets in the game for five or six innings. With the way these two teams have been playing, that’s enough for me to pick New York to come out ahead tonight.
Red Sox vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Mets moneyline
Under 8
Francisco Lindor 1+ runs
Along with taking New York to win, I’m going with Lindor to score another run tonight. Lindor has scored runs in six straight games and should continue his fantastic form in tonight’s contest.
The Mets have been shutting down opponents and have hit the Under in five of their last six games, and even the normally high-scoring Red Sox have also come in Under the total in six of their last eight outings.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Red Sox vs Mets odds
Red Sox vs Mets live odds
Red Sox vs Mets opening odds
- Moneyline: Boston -115 | New York -105
- Run line: Boston -1.5 (+140) | New York +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-115) | Under 8 (-105)
Red Sox vs Mets moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Mets are up more than six units on the moneyline this year. The Red Sox have lost about four units for backers this season.
- Boston has a 14-13 record with Houck on the mound, while New York is 3-7 when Megill starts.
- Both teams have a slight bias to the Over, which has a 71-61 record in Red Sox games, and a 69-66 edge when the Mets play.
- New York is playing to an average total of 9.17 runs per game, with Boston averaging a total of 9.51 runs.
Red Sox vs Mets trend
The Red Sox are 1-7 overall in Houck’s last eight starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Mets.
Red Sox vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Flushing, NY |
| Date: | Wednesday, 9-4-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NESN, SNY |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Tanner Houck (8-9, 3.12 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Tylor Megill (3-5, 4.82 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Mets latest injuries
Red Sox vs Mets weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
