The Toronto Blue Jays will look to even up their series with the Cincinnati Reds at Rogers Centre tonight after dropping the Monday opener 6-3.
Reds vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
Blue Jays -0.5 F5 (-103 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
The lost season for the Toronto Blue Jays continues, but at least they are favored in this one. That’s because they’ll have an edge in starting pitching tonight as Toronto hands the ball to Jose Berrios.
It’s been an interesting season for the veteran right-hander. Berrios pitched very well early on, entering June with a sub-3.00 ERA. But then he hit a bit of a wall and pitched to a 6.82 ERA in his final six starts heading into the All-Star break.
But it appears that the break is exactly what the 30-year-old starter needed because he has come out of pitching pretty well, outside of a tough outing against the New York Yankees. Berrios has allowed one earned run and completed seven innings in three of his last four starts. Even with that rough start against the Yanks included, he has a 2.77 ERA and is limiting opponents to a .210 batting average over that four-start stretch.
Tonight, he’ll stare across at a Cincinnati Reds lineup that has had its issues when facing right-handed pitching this season. Cincy ranks 25th in batting average and wRC+ and has the fourth-highest strikeout rate when facing righties.
Meanwhile, it will be rookie Carson Spiers toeing the rubber for the Reds. The right-hander has worked as both a starter and a long reliever for the Reds this season, and his best results have been when he is coming out of the pen. As a starter, he owns a 5.40 ERA while surrendering a .770 OPS.
The Jays aren’t exactly a murderer’s row when it comes to hitting, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is still raking and he’s getting support from guys like Daulton Varsho and Ernie Clement. That means Toronto should have enough firepower to put some runs on the scoreboard tonight.
However, per usual, it remains difficult to trust this Blue Jays team to pull out a moneyline win with a bullpen that ranks 28th in ERA and 27th in xFIP. Instead, bet them to have a lead through five innings because we can trust Berrios in this matchup.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 RBI (+190 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
I’ve spent a lot of time talking about Guerrero Jr. in this section this season, and why not? But his tear has sapped his props of a lot of value these days, so let’s give one of his teammates some love tonight in Varsho.
The Blue Jays centerfielder is a shoe-in for a Gold Glove this season, but he’s also been swinging a hot stick lately. Varsho is currently in the middle of a four-game hitting streak where he has a .380 average and a 1.032 OPS. That includes one home run and five RBI. He has driven in at least one run in three of his last four games and I like his odds to drive in another run tonight.
In fact, at the +190 price tag, Over 0.5 RBI for Varsho is listed as a five-star play according to our Covers Prop Projections.
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Reds vs Blue Jays odds
Reds vs Blue Jays live odds
Reds vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Run line: Cincinnati +1.5 (-170) | Toronto -1.5 (+155)
- Moneyline: Cincinnati +130 | Toronto -155
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Reds vs Blue Jays spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened this interleague matchup as -155 home favorites but they have since been faded down to the -135 range.
- That line move is understandable considering the struggles of their bullpen and the lack of consistency overall.
- The total hit the board at 8.5 and that's where it remains as of early Tuesday afternoon.
- The Blue Jays have turned into quite the Over team, going 38-19 O/U in their last 57 games. The Over is also 8-3-1 in Berrios' last 12 starts.
Reds vs Blue Jays trend
The Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 22 games for +7.30 Units and a 26% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Blue Jays.
Reds vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Roger Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Tuesday, 8-20-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSOH, Sportsnet |
| Reds starting pitcher: | Carson Spiers (4-4, 4.55 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Jose Berrios (11-9, 3.85 ERA) |
Reds vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Reds vs Blue Jays weather
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