Reds vs Braves Prediction, Picks, & Game 2 Odds for Tonight’s MLB Matchup

The Atlanta Braves have lost three in a row heading into Wednesday, and despite being home in a hitter’s park on Monday, they were once again limited to fewer than two runs against Hunter Greene and the Cincinnati Reds.

However, Braves ace Chris Sale takes the ball (with an extra day of rest in his back pocket following yesterday's rainout) against something of an experimental starter in Nick Martinez. Can Atlanta get its foot on the gas and reclaim the form it built to close out the first half of the season?

Let’s get right into our Reds vs. Braves predictions and MLB picks for tonight's second half of a split doubleheader.

Reds vs Braves prediction

My best bet
Braves first five innings -0.5 (-125 at BetRivers)

My analysis
It’s been an unbelievable season for Chris Sale of the Atlanta Braves, who's relied even more heavily upon his devastating slider to get strikeouts, pairing it with a fastball that's back up 1 mph on average to solidify himself as a complete arm who can pitch to outs via contact.

The lefty owns a 2.20 ERA through three starts this month and has maintained an expected batting average right around .210 for a second straight year. He’s brought an already-solid 29.4% strikeout rate back up to 32.4% and through all of this, has pitched poorly just once all season.

The Cincinnati Reds have been much better in July with a 10th-ranked 112 wRC+, but runs have been sporadic since the start of the second half as much of that number was weighted by an insane four-game stretch that saw Rece Hinds make a mockery of Big League pitching.

This team is still striking out in 26.6% of plate appearances this month and relying heavily upon power, so hitting a strikeout artist like Sale who's pitched to a ton of ground balls and a cool .327 expected slugging percentage this season is going to be a tall task.

Making matters even worse, Martinez will be thrust into a role he’s never quite mastered. We can assume after he worked three innings late in the first half of the season and had nine days of rest that Cincinnati has worked to stretch him out during the break, which should work against him given the right-hander is sporting a 4.83 career ERA as a starter compared to a 2.95 ERA out of the bullpen, a split which has widened this year to a 7.36 and 1.94 ERA, respectively.

The right-hander is a heavy fly-ball pitcher, which should make him minced meat against a Braves team that lifts the ball in the air more often than 80% of the league and plays in the eighth-friendliest park for home runs in Atlanta.

They’ll have a field day at the plate here, particularly given the strikeout issues they’ve faced lately shouldn’t be present against a contact-oriented pitcher in Martinez, and win the first half of this game as a result.

Reds vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)

Braves -1.5

Chris Sale Over 7.5 strikeouts

Marcell Ozuna 2+ total bases

+440 at FanDuel

It’s hard to find a shop where you can use this first-five line into a parlay, but I have no issues laying the runs for the whole game. The edge is too large for me to pass up, particularly given Cincinnati's persistent issues with strikeouts this month and Martinez’s struggles as a starter. They should be in a hole early that Sale won't let them recover from.

Sale had racked up 8+ punchouts in four straight outings before meeting a Padres team that swings the bat a lot and puts the ball in play last time out. Cincinnati ranks in the Bottom 8 of the league in swings per pitch for the season and in July, and they’ve fallen from a 22nd-ranked 75.9% contact rate this season to a 73.2% mark in July which ranks 26th. He should pound the zone all night and put away many of these hitters on strikes.

Then, while I felt like being as bold as to call a home run for Marcell Ozuna, we’ll opt to back him to rack up 2+ total bases here. The Big Bear is 4-for-8 off of Martinez with a double and two homers, and given Martinez’s nature as a fly-ball pitcher, he should be elevating and celebrating on Tuesday.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Reds vs Braves odds

Reds vs Braves live odds

Reds vs Braves opening odds

• Run line: Cincinnati +1.5 (-110) | Atlanta -1.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Cincinnati +200 | Atlanta -245
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5

Reds vs Braves spread and Over/Under analysis

• The Braves stood around -220 when this line first opened Tuesday, but following the double-header rescheduling fell steadily to around -174 as of Wednesday afternoon.
  
  
• The total opened up at 7.5 and after jumping to 8 for a few hours early on Tuesday, is back down to 7.5 (shaded to the Under).
  
  
• Just 12% of bettors at DraftKings are backing the Reds to win, with the visitors also accounting for just 12% of the money.
  
  
• Bettors are siding with the favorite on the total, with 59% of the tickets and 79% of the handle are on the Under.

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Reds vs Braves trend

The Braves have stayed Under the total in 53 of their last 80 games (+27.50 units / 31% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Braves

Reds vs Braves game info

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