The Cincinnati Reds and New York Yankees will continue their three-game set tonight in the Bronx.
The Yankees would have expected to have a clear pitching advantage last night, but no dice. Luis Gil's struggles continued as New York lost 5-4.
Things don't get easier tonight against Cincinnati pitcher Andrew Abbott, but my Reds vs. Yankees predictions and free MLB picks for Wednesday, July 3 see Aaron Judge staying hot at the plate.
Reds vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases (-120 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Despite the slump that the New York Yankees find themselves in as a team, Aaron Judge has been exempt from that. Somehow, he's begun to play better over the last month than when he triumphed in the AL MVP odds last season.
Home run No. 32 came last night. It was a bet you cashed if you read my daily prop bets, and it marked the sixth out of the previous seven games that he hit his Over 1.5 total bases prop. Tonight, we're headed there for our best bet.
Judge has been one of the best in baseball against left-handed pitching, and he'll face it tonight in Cincinnati Reds starter Andrew Abbott. Judge is second in baseball in isolated power against lefties, second in slugging, and just outside the Top 30 in batting average against them. Thus, he profiles quite strong tonight against a pitcher in Abbott who has struggled with barrel rate occasionally this season.
It's also worth mentioning what happened to Abbott the previous time he faced an elite player against lefties. Heliot Ramos of the San Francisco Giants ranks one above Judge in the second-place metrics mentioned above. Ramos went head-to-head with Abbott about a month ago. His first at-bat? A double with a 108.5 exit velocity, followed by a hard-hit single before Abbott was pulled.
If Judge doesn't make it home run No. 33 tonight, he'll at least eclipse two or more total bases again.
Reds vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases
Yankees moneyline
I'm not running to back the Yankees in their current form, but I see a slight edge against this number. Thus, I'm willing to bet them here in my same-game parlay.
The Yankees offense has been good enough to win them games over this poor streak of play. It's been the pitching that has let them down. That's much less of a concern with the Reds facing a lefty tonight in Carlos Rodon. Cincy is in the Bottom 40% of baseball in nearly every metric against left-handed pitchers, including 20th overall in BABIP.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Reds vs Yankees odds
Reds vs Yankees live odds
Reds vs Yankees opening odds
- Run line: Cincinnati +1.5 (-142) | New York -1.5 (+118)
- Moneyline: Cincinnati +150 | New York -180
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+100) | Under 8.5 (-120)
Reds vs Yankees spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Yankees hold a slight advantage in this series lately, with a 6-4 winning record over the last 10 head-to-head meetings.
- Things haven't been great for New York lately. It's lost seven of its last 10 games and cost bettors over four units.
- Cincinnati's been slightly better, with a 4-6 record in its last 10 games, which has allowed bettors to essentially break even.
- The Yankees have been a big Over team amid this slump. Nine of its last 10 games have gone in that direction.
Reds vs Yankees trend
The Yankees have hit the Over in 23 of their last 30 games (+15.10 Units / 45% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Yankees
Reds vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Wednesday, 7-3-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Ohio, Amazon Prime Video |
| Reds starting pitcher: | Andrew Abbott (7-6, 3.41 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Carlos Rodon (9-5, 4.42 ERA) |
Reds vs Yankees latest injuries
Reds vs Yankees weather
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