The final game of this AL Central series gets underway this afternoon, with the Minnesota Twins hosting the Kansas City Royals at Target Field.
My Royals vs. Twins prediction is expecting a low-scoring affair, primarily due to the pitching matchup.
Read on for my MLB picks for Wednesday, August 14.
Royals vs Twins prediction
My best bet
Under 8 (-102 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The Kansas City Royals will hand the ball to Cole Ragans, and he'll once again be an excellent candidate to back. Ragans is 9-7 through 24 starts this season with a commanding 3.27 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally strong as the southpaw ranks in the 62nd percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. This success is likely to continue against the Minnesota Twins, a team Ragans boasts a 3.00 ERA against over three career meetings.
Meanwhile, Bailey Ober (12-5 with a 3.52 ERA and 0.97 WHIP) takes the mound for Minnesota. His analytics are even stronger as Ober boasts a 3.35 xERA and ranks in the 74th percentile or higher in xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate and hard-hit rate.
We’ve already seen this expected positive regression start to kick in over the past two months, considering Ober is 7-1 over his past nine starts with a dominant 1.76 ERA.
Following the Twins' starter is a trustworthy bullpen ranking in the top half of the league in ERA, FIP and xFIP.
Royals vs Twins same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8
Cole Ragans Over 6.5 strikeouts
Ryan Jeffers Under 0.5 hits
When Ragans’ game is dialled in, it’s due to his ability to rack up strikeouts. He ranks in the 92nd percentile in whiff rate and 87th percentile in strikeout rate.
Ryan Jeffers is 0-for-6 through six career PAs against Ragans with three Ks. He’s also failed to record a hit in eight of his past 13 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Royals vs Twins odds
Royals vs Twins live odds
Royals vs Twins opening odds
- Run line: Kansas City -1.5 (+154) | Minnesota +1.5 (-185)
- Moneyline: Kansas City +114 | Minnesota -135
- Over/Under: Over 8 (+105) | Under 8 (-125)
Royals vs Twins spread and Over/Under analysis
- Minnesota opened as a -135 favorite before this game was bet down to a pick ‘em.
- While Ober has been on fire, this line movement still makes sense considering Ragans is a stronger pitcher overall.
- The total opened at eight and remains at that number at the time of writing.
- I believe that this total will only increase due to all the aforementioned variables.
Royals vs Twins trend
There have been eight or fewer total runs scored in four of Ober’s past five starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Royals vs. Twins.
Royals vs Twins game info
| Location: | Target Field, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Wednesday, 8-14-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Kansas City, Bally North |
| Royals starting pitcher: | Cole Ragans (9-7, 3.27 ERA) |
| Twins starting pitcher: | Bailey Ober (12-5, 3.52 ERA) |
Royals vs Twins latest injuries
Royals vs Twins weather
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