Sitting in last place in the AL East, the Toronto Blue Jays are making a mess of a pivotal season, and they’ll be under pressure again this afternoon against the Minnesota Twins. My Twins vs. Blue Jays predictions are perhaps, on the surface, counterintuitive.
Max Kepler’s RBI single was the difference as the Twins edged last night’s contest at Rogers Centre to move to 16-2 over their last 18 games — and it was a familiar story for the Blue Jays, with a quality start from Yusei Kikuchi but limited run support.
Even so, Toronto is the favorite in a reunion with former prospect Simeon Woods Richardson, who gets the ball for the Twins against Blue Jays ace Kevin Gausman. Check out my MLB picks for this afternoon's showdown below.
My best bet
Both teams score 3+ runs (+110 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
The Toronto Blue Jays’ flailing offense has naturally been under the microscope this season, and their .228 batting average ranks 22nd in the majors. But there were some silver linings in Friday night’s loss, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette serving up multi-hit games and Isiah Kiner-Falefa driving in three runs.
It’s more than just a one-game upswing too. Toronto had scored five or more runs in three of its last four outings heading into this series, suggesting the hosts might finally be turning the corner at the plate after posting ugly numbers in April.
That gives me confidence that the Blue Jays’ hitters can play their part today, and I like these plus odds for both teams to score three or more runs.
Simeon Woods Richardson has a 1.74 ERA this year, but he’s still a wild card. He’s making just his sixth career start and Toronto should have an inside track on how to attack the young righty.
Meanwhile, as well as Kevin Gausman has pitched in his last four starts, the Minnesota Twins boast one of the more dangerous line-ups. The visitors lead the majors in doubles, they’re in the Top 10 in OPS, and they’ve had some monster efforts at the plate in May, including an 11-1 win over the Seattle Mariners on Thursday.
The Toronto bullpen has had some rough moments lately, so Minnesota could still do its share of the scoring for this prop, even if Gausman has a blistering start.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Kevin Gausman Over 6.5 strikeouts (-105 at PROLINE+)
After a shoulder issue disrupted Gausman’s preseason, he looked undercooked for his first few starts, with an 11.57 ERA through three outings.
But he’s rolling now, and I’m grabbing the Over on his strikeouts prop despite predicting that the Twins will manufacture runs this afternoon. Gausman had eight strikeouts against the Washington Nationals last weekend in just 5 1/3 innings of work, and I see him carrying that form into today’s start too. Additionally, the Twins take their hacks, fanning 24% of the time vs. right-handed pitchers.
He threw 112 pitches in that last start and, with the Toronto bullpen wobbling, the hosts will surely look to ride their ace for as long as possible today.
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Twins vs Blue Jays odds
Twins vs Blue Jays live odds
Twins vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Run line: Minnesota +1.5 (-157) | Toronto -1.5 (+142)
- Moneyline: Minnesota +140 | Toronto -153
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-107) | Under 7.5 (-105)
Twins vs Blue Jays spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays have lost six of their last eight games, but they’re big favorites here, and that’s largely a reflection of Gausman’s experience going up against a raw Woods Richardson.
- Toronto is just 8-8 at Rogers Centre this season, including three losses in a row, while the in-form Twins are 12-7 on the road and have won seven in a row away from Target Field.
- There could be more reshuffling in the hosts’ outfield today, with George Springer and Kevin Kiermaier both questionable due to illness, but Yimi Garcia’s return to the bullpen is a big boost for the Blue Jays, who’ve lost their last three matchups against Minnesota.
- While Toronto and Minnesota have each hit the Over in four of their last six games, the Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these teams.
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Twins vs Blue Jays trend
The free-scoring Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 48 of their last 77 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs Blue Jays.
Twins vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto ON |
| Date: | Saturday, 5-11-2024 |
| First pitch: | 3:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSNO, SN1 |
| Twins starting pitcher: | Simeon Woods Richardson (1-0, 1.74 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Kevin Gausman (2-3, 3.78 ERA) |
Twins vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Twins vs Blue Jays weather
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