In a battle for playoff positioning in the American League, the Minnesota Twins try to avoid a third straight loss in the finale of their four-game set with the Tampa Bay Rays.
Oddsmakers are backing the visitors, pegging Minnesota as -136 moneyline favorites, and my Twins vs. Rays predictions are following suit.
Check out our MLB picks below for this clash on Thursday, September 5.
Twins vs Rays prediction
My best bet
Twins moneyline (-135 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The Minnesota Twins have been an equal-opportunity loser in the last two games against the Tampa Bay Rays. After getting shut down in a 2-1 loss on Tuesday, they were thumped 9-4 on Wednesday.
Those losses have dropped them into a virtual tie for the second Wild Card with the Kansas City Royals — their opponent next series, in what will be must-see TV.
Today, they’ll turn to red-hot Pablo Lopez to earn a series split.
The 28-year-old Venezuelan sported a lights-out 1.71 ERA in August and has not allowed an earned run in three straight starts (20 2/3 innings). He last shut out the Blue Jays 2-0, working 7 2/3 innings of 6-hit ball, striking out three.
The Twins are 11th in the majors in runs scored, and they came to Lopez’s aid in his lone start against the Rays this year. Lopez lasted four innings and surrendered five earned runs, but Minnesota prevailed for a 7-5 win.
Barring an incredible run in its final 23 games, Tampa is most likely playing out the stretch. The Rays have gone 5-8 in their last 13, and sit six games back of the Twins in the wild-card chase, with four teams they’d still need to leapfrog.
The Rays have struggled offensively all year, ranking Bottom 3 in runs scored and Bottom 5 in hitting, slugging, and OPS.
They’ll look for a series win today with Taj Bradley going for them. The righty was rocked in August, taking the loss in four of his five starts and posting a 10.41 ERA. Bradley allowed at least five earned runs in four of his five August starts. Last time out, he was battered for eight hits and eight runs and couldn’t get out of the second inning in a 13-5 loss to the Padres.
Tampa has dominated this head-to-head, taking seven of the last 10 against the Twins, but this is the right time to go against those figures, as the pitching matchup tilts heavily in Minnesota’s favor.
Twins vs Rays same-game parlay (SGP)
Twins moneyline
Royce Lewis 2+ total bases
Yandy Diaz 2+ total bases
It’s been a good week for Royce Lewis, who is hitting .316 with a home run, four RBI, and two runs scored. He went 1-for-3 in Wednesday’s loss and has hits in 11 of his last 13 games, with at least two total bases in three of five.
It’s a small sample, but the Twins’ third baseman has had success vs. Bradley, going 3-for-5 with a home run. A hot hitter vs. a struggling pitcher that he’s had success against at plus odds? Yes, please.
Yandy Diaz drilled his 13th home run of the season Wednesday, giving him four games with at least two total bases over his last eight. While Lopez has been stingy with the runs, he’s still hittable, surrendering at least six hits in four of his five August starts.
Diaz has picked up hits in 11 of his last 15 games, with three doubles and three home runs, so he’s capable of picking up two total bases with a swing of the bat.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Twins vs Rays odds
Twins vs Rays live odds
Twins vs Rays opening odds
- Moneyline: Minnesota -136 | Tampa Bay +116
- Run line: Minnesota -1.5 (+126) | Tampa Bay +1.5 (-152)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+102) | Under 7.5 (-124)
Twins vs Rays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Tampa has won four of the last five vs Minnesota, but money has come in on the visitors likely due to the lopsided pitching matchup.
- Six of the Twins' last seven road games have hit the Over.
- The Over has cashed in four of the last six head-to-heads.
Twins vs Rays trend
Minnesota is 38-22 as a moneyline favorite this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Rays.
Twins vs Rays game info
| Location: | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date: | Thursday, 9-5-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports North, Bally Sports Sun |
| Twins starting pitcher: | Pablo Lopez (13-8, 4.05 ERA) |
| Rays starting pitcher: | Taj Bradley (6-9, 4.35 ERA) |
Twins vs Rays latest injuries
Twins vs Rays weather
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