The 2024 Toronto Blue Jays are incapable of building momentum. Every time they do something positive, they almost immediately follow it up with a negative.
Case-in-point: getting shut out by the worst team in baseball following a win 9-3 the day before. The MLB odds have the Jays as big favorites for the finale against the Chicago White Sox, but it’s hard to have faith in them at such a hefty price.
Instead, my White Sox vs. Blue Jays predictions will turn their attention to the total in my MLB picks for Wednesday, May 22.
White Sox vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
Over 8.5 (-106 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
The Toronto Blue Jays didn’t score any runs on Tuesday and some credit must be given to Chicago White Sox starter Garrett Crochet, but the frequency in which this lineup no-shows is concerning and there is no excuse for not having an offensive outburst is today’s rubber match.
The White Sox hand the ball to prospect Nick Nastrini. The 24-year-old right-hander is making just his third career start after making two spot starts for the Pale Hose in the middle of April. The first wasn’t terrible as he limited the Kansas City Royals to two runs on three hits and two walks. However, he was then ambushed by the Phillies his next time out, getting tagged for six runs on five hits and five walks in just three innings of work.
While it’s a small sample size, that works out to a 6.67 expected ERA and a .258 opponent expected batting average, both well below the league average.
For all of the Blue Jays' faults, there are some bright spots in the lineup. Most notably, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Danny Jansen, and Davis Schneider, and it seems like manager John Schneider is committing to these guys at the top of the lineup.
On top of that, five innings seems like the best-case scenario for Nastrini, which means extended usage for a White Sox bullpen that has the second-worst xFIP in the big leagues.
The Blue Jays counter Nastrini with Chris Bassitt and the veteran right-hander would be the first to admit his stuff hasn’t been as good as he would like this season. Bassitt ranks in the 19th percentile in xERA and the 16th in opponent xBA and we’ve seen this White Sox lineup be pesky in this series by plating eight runs through the first two games.
With this pitching matchup, this game looks like a good bet to go Over the 8.5 total.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 hits (+190 at PROLINE+)
Guerrero’s turnaround at the plate has been one of Toronto's few positives in this disappointing start to the season. While Vladdy was held hitless yesterday, it was just the third time that has happened in his last 20 games.
The star Blue Jays first baseman is hitting .377 with a .916 OPS during that period while also driving in 11 runs. We are still waiting for the return of his home run numbers, but he is still hitting the ball as hard as ever. In fact, Vladdy ranks in the 98th percentile in average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage.
He also ranks in the 92nd percentile in expected batting average, so he’s making a lot of hard contact. We could start to see those dingers return with a little adjustment to his launch angle. For now, let’s be happy he’s having many more good at-bats than bad ones. Vladdy has eight multi-hit games over this 20-game stretch and at this price, in this matchup, there is some value for him to have another one tonight.
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White Sox vs Blue Jays odds
White Sox vs Blue Jays live odds
White Sox vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 -120 | Toronto -1.5 +100
- Moneyline: Chicago +195 | Toronto -220
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
White Sox vs Blue Jays spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened this American League matchup as big -220 home favorites but that high price hasn't bothered early bettors as the line is up to Toronto -240.
- I see no value in backing a Blue Jays team that has been so disappointing at this expensive price, especially considering how much Bassitt's starts have varied this season. As a result, Toronto has won just three of his nine starts.
- The total hit the board at 8.5 and that's where it remains as of Wednesday afternoon.
- The Blue Jays and White Sox have been solid Under bets all season, but this looks like a spot that could buck the trend thanks to some potentially shaky pitching.
White Sox vs Blue Jays trend
The Blue Jays have only hit the Moneyline in nine of their last 26 games for -11.8 units and a -35% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Blue Jays
White Sox vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Wednesday, 5-22-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCSCH, SN1 |
| White Sox starting pitcher: | Nick Nastrini (0-2, 7.88 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Chris Bassitt (3-6, 5.03 ERA) |
White Sox vs Blue Jays latest injuries
White Sox vs Blue Jays weather
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