It's another edition of the Fall Classic when two giants, the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, meet in the World Series.
The Yankees have been mighty impressive this postseason and calmly dispatched the Cleveland Guardians to get here while the Los Angeles Dodgers have faced a much tougher path.
How will that factor into my Yankees vs. Dodgers predictions for Game 1 of the World Series? Well, my MLB picks forgo the side, instead option for a player prop for Friday, October 25.
Yankees vs Dodgers prediction
Who will win Yankees vs Dodgers Game 1?
I lean towards the Dodgers, and the home-field advantage is what's mostly pushing me over the edge. There is only a little to separate things beyond that. In my World Series preview, I noted how a few individuals down the lineup would determine the tilt for two evenly matched teams. In this instance, I suspect the Dodgers' "other" players outside the stars will have a better chance of doing that, given the pitching matchup.
How will Judge and Ohtani fare in their first World Series Game?
I like Ohtani's matchup here more than Judge, given what pitcher he sees on the mound. Gerrit Cole has elevated his game in the playoffs, but hard-hit ball has been an issue for him this season. You can't ignore that with a matchup looming against Ohtani.
As for Judge, it's a true coin flip. In general, I suspect he has a good World Series because I trust the data behind what he's done throughout his career. However, a matchup with Jack Flaherty could be tricky.
For all the latest angles on Ohtani vs. Judge, we've got you covered!
My Yankees vs Dodgers best bet
Gerrit Cole Under 15.5 outs
(-150 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Throughout these playoffs, we have had some excellent success backing Gerrit Cole. Much of that has been built on his having decent matchups and me giving a veteran pitcher the benefit of the doubt in the postseason. For our two bets on him, it's worked.
In this matchup, however, Cole is getting a Los Angeles Dodgers lineup uniquely built to punish his weaknesses this season. His impressive last start against them has also given us value. I'm not sure he gets shelled or even puts up a particularly bad start; however, my strongest opinion about this game is that he has a hard time being economical with his pitches. My best bet is under 15.5 Outs.
Before we discuss why, it's worth noting that this is somewhat of a market outliner. Places like DraftKings and BetRivers have juiced this all the way down to -180 at the time of publication. That's huge for us, given our fair price is -182. That's a significant edge, and because of that, this will be a significant bet for me.
No baseball team is built better to target a pitcher with walk issues than the Dodgers. It's been at the core of their franchise for the last few years, and it's continued this season. LA enters this game ranking 1st in the playoffs in walks per game at six and is second overall on the season. Beyond that, LA's metrics have painted them as very patient at the plate, ranking second in baseball in chase rate; given that the Dodgers trail only New York in both of these metrics, it's easier to argue that Cole hasn't pitched against a more patient swinging team all season. That's a problem.
It's a problem for a multitude of reasons. Cole has been erratic throughout the season, best illustrated by his previous start. That's when he walked four Guardians players and lasted only 4.1 innings. It's what he's done much of the season with a below-average walk rate and being a chase-reliant pitcher, getting some of the lowest chases on pitches of his career. I expect that to continue against a lineup built to challenge pitchers like him.
We have plenty in our favor here. There's always the risk of one of the best lineups in baseball, like the Dodgers, running a pitcher early from the game, especially at home. However, they rarely face a pitcher who will have issues keeping the ball in the zone like Cole. That's why I'm such a fan of this bet. Unlike the one meeting in the summer, Cole will struggle to create many swings and misses from this patient Dodger team, and consequently, he will fail to go over five innings.
Yankees vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Gerrit Cole Under 15.5 outs
Max Muncy Over 0.5 walks
We're keeping this same-game parlay straight-forward and doubling down with the logic of our best bet.
Max Muncy is the most patient hitter in the Dodgers lineup, so it stands to reason that he'd benefit the most from a pitcher who walks more batters than he should, and that's how we're approaching this. Muncy has come into this one with some great form. He walked an eye-catching 11 times in the previous series against the New York Mets. He should have no issues getting a free pass if that form carries over here.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Dodgers odds
Yankees vs Dodgers live odds
Yankees vs Dodgers opening odds
- Moneyline: New York +110 | Los Angeles -130
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-200) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Yankees vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- New York has been particularly dominant in these playoffs, with only two losses and an 8-2 record over the last ten games.
- Los Angeles hasn't been quite that good but still has a 6-4 record over the last ten games, which has won bettors nearly a unit.
- This has been a competitive series in recent meetings, as the two teams have split the last ten games.
- The Dodgers have been a fantastic Over team, as eight of their last ten games have been over.
Yankees vs Dodgers trend
The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 86 away games (+20.75 Units / 19% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Dodgers.
Yankees vs Dodgers Game 1 info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Friday, 10-25-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:08 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Gerrit Cole (2024 postseason: 1-0, 3.31 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Jack Flaherty (2024 postseason: 1-2, 7.04 ERA) |
Yankees vs Dodgers latest injuries
Yankees vs Dodgers weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
