Baseball is back with a bang at Minute Maid Park this afternoon, and it doesn’t get much better on Opening Day than a heavyweight clash between the Houston Astros and New York Yankees.
The Astros, coming off their seventh straight trip to the ALCS, are the favorites in the latest MLB odds, and there’s a new era brewing in Houston with Joe Espada replacing Dusty Baker in the dugout and veterans Martin Maldonado and Michael Brantley moving on.
It was a forgettable 2023 for the Yankees, but Juan Soto’s arrival has sent expectations skyrocketing again. Still, the Bronx Bombers enter the new season under another injury cloud with ace Gerrit Cole sidelined.
Check out my MLB picks in our free Yankees vs. Astros preview for Thursday, March 28 as we get an early look at two teams eyeing a World Series trip in October.
Yankees vs Astros odds
Yankees vs Astros predictions
Before injuries intervened, this would have been an Opening Day showdown between Cole and Justin Verlander. Instead, we get a pair of lefty starters with top-tier talent but some ugly spring training performances to iron out.
Nestor Cortes gave up 17 hits and nine earned runs in preseason action. Meanwhile, Framber Valdez was roughed up by the St. Louis Cardinals in a March 17 start, allowing four runs in four innings of work.
That makes the Over an appealing pick this afternoon. Of course, it also helps to have two loaded lineups squaring off, and the drama of the New York Yankees' first regular season game with Juan Soto alongside Aaron Judge at the top of the order.
The Houston Astros’ bats were lethal last year, as Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker piled up 163 hits apiece, and they ended up with 827 runs – third-most in the American League. There’s every reason to expect a repeat in 2024.
The hosts have hit the Over in 33 of their past 54 contests, and I’m predicting plenty of runs this afternoon to jumpstart the new season.
My best bet: Over 8.5 (-120 at bet365)
Yankees vs Astros same-game parlay
Over 8.5
Juan Soto Over 0.5 RBIs
Framber Valdez Under 5.5 Ks
The Soto trade was the Yankees’ biggest splash this offseason and the visitors will need to lean on their offense as they navigate shaky rotation depth to start the year.
Aaron Boone acknowledged this week that Soto is still settling in with the Bronx Bombers, but I see the lefty making an instant impact here by driving in a run on his debut. Soto racked up 109 RBIs last season with the San Diego Padres.
I’m also taking the Under on Valdez’s strikeouts. After some of his wobbles this spring, this is a tricky opener against a New York lineup eager to move on from a miserable 2023 at the plate.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Yankees vs Astros moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Astros have home-field advantage for their first series of the year and they get the favorites tag at odds of -150, despite a 1-5 record in their last six matchups against the AL East.
- Houston also has the bullpen advantage, with free agent signing Josh Hader and Ryan Pressly.
- The Over was 91-76-6 for the Astros last season, and the hosts ranked third in all of baseball with 8.8 hits per game.
- While the Yankees’ 2023 offensive numbers were unquestionably below par, this offense should be supercharged with Soto hitting behind Judge in 2024.
Trend to know
Despite finishing with an 82-80 record last season, the Yankees had a 5-2 edge over the Astros in their head-to-head meetings and swept the three-game series at Minute Maid Park. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Astros
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Yankees vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Thursday, March 28, 2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | YES, Space City Network |
Starting pitchers
Nestor Cortes Jr. (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Like so many Yankees, 2023 was a down season for Cortes after his All-Star run the prior year. He only started 12 games due to injuries and posted a 4.97 ERA.
Framber Valdez (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Valdez put together an impressive 3.45 ERA last season and reached the 200-strikeout mark for the first time. However, he took the loss in all three of his playoff starts.
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