After playing one of the best postseason games of all time, the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians will reconvene for Game Four of the ALCS tonight.
The Guardians were one out away from going down 3-0, effectively ending this series. Then magic happened, and well, you know the rest. Cleveland found a way in extra innings to get the win, and now the series has an entirely different tenure.
However, while that magic may have been fun for a night, my Yankees vs Guardians predictions doubt it continues. Find out more in my MLB picks for Friday, October 18.
Make sure to also check out our favorite Yankees vs. Guardians props before placing your bets!
Yankees vs Guardians prediction
Who will win Yankees vs Guardians Game 4?
I love the New York Yankees tonight, and it goes back to a common theme. With Luis Gil taking the mound, the Yankees boast a much better pitcher on the mound, and the electric right-hander should be able to give them an early boost.
Last night, notwithstanding, these games were won in the first five innings because New York has mostly nullified the Cleveland Guardians' bullpen advantage. We should get back to that tonight.
My Yankees vs Guardians best bet
Yankees moneyline
(-120 at BetMGM)
My analysis
In so many ways, I could rinse and repeat the previous handicap from the first three games of this series for this evening.
The Yankees were the correct side last night, and until Guardians slugger Jhonkensy Noel hit a mammoth homer with two outs remaining, it appeared that the Bronx Bombers would have a stranglehold on this series. While it's a big ask for New York to bounce back up from the mat after that one, they are more than capable of it.
Although Luis Gil has regressed from his early season form that took the league by storm, he's still been quite good. The most significant skill set for Gil this season has been creating swings and misses with a whiff rate that places him in the Top 20% of the league.
Cleveland maintains the highest chase rate of any team remaining in the playoffs, and its whiff rate has seen a big jump from the regular season. This plays to Gil's strengths, and I expect it to show early on at Progressive Field.
Meanwhile, Guardians starter Gavin Williams has been barreled this season, ranking in the bottom 11% of baseball in hard-hit rate. Earlier this season, the right-hander lasted just four innings against the Yankees and surrendered four earned runs.
Williams has difficulty controlling big bats, and with both Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton hot at the plate, it's hard to see that changing tonight.
Yankees vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
Yankees moneyline
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases
Judge has officially regained his mojo. Hits like his Game 4 homer off one of the best closers in baseball don't get much bigger, and this should be what keeps him going for the last stretch.
Throughout the season, Judge has been the best fastball hitter in the sport. Tonight, he gets a pitcher that throws the heater over 50% of the time. It's a dream matchup for the Yankees captain.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Guardians odds
Yankees vs Guardians live odds
Yankees vs Guardians opening odds
- Moneyline: New York -1.5 (+140 | Cleveland +1.5 (-165)
- Run line: New York -120 | Cleveland +102
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)
Yankees vs Guardians moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Yankees have won seven of the last ten head-to-head meetings between these two teams, including three of the previous four.
The Yankees are 6-4 over their last 10 games, which has resulted in a small net loss for bettors during that period. - The Guardians are 4-6 over their last 10 contests, which has lost bettors nearly four units.
- The total between these two teams has gone Over in six of the last 10 matchups.
Yankees vs Guardians trend
New York has won four of the last five head-to-head matchups. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Guardians.
Yankees vs Guardians Game 4 info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Friday, 10-18-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:08 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Luis Gil (2024 postseason: 0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Gavin Williams (2024 postseason: 0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
Yankees vs Guardians latest injuries
Yankees vs Guardians weather
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