The New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles will meet on Saturday afternoon for Game 2 of their last series before the All-Star break, and it may bring more fireworks.
New York got a massive win last night, but the bigger story was elsewhere. Benches cleared in the ninth inning when Yankees' closer Clay Holmes threw a pitch that hit Orioles youngster Heston Kjerstad in the helmet. Baltimore and manager Brandon Hyde took exception, and the rest was history. It heightened things for the rest of a series that was already huge for two teams who don't particularly care for the other side to begin with.
My Yankees vs. Orioles predictions and MLB picks expect order to be restored by Aaron Judge on July 13.
Yankees vs Orioles prediction
My best bet
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases (+115 at BetRivers)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
There are plenty of reasons to like the Baltimore Orioles today. The New York Yankees have been terrible for a month and has yet to win back-to-back games in roughly the same time.
In addition, what appeared to be a young, unexpected gem of an arm in Luis Gil has looked to be figured out recently. He was good in his last start against the Boston Red Sox but had given up three or more earned runs in four of his previous five starts. All that said, my projections make New York +108 and the total 9, spot-on with the market. With that in mind, I'm looking in the prop market for my best bet and grabbing Aaron Judge at +115 to go Over 1.5 total bases.
It's hard to pass up on Judge at this price point. Yesterday, we cashed in on him to score an RBI in our MLB player props. Judge rebounded nicely from a terrible series against the Tampa Bay Rays as he got on base every time he made a plate appearance with four walks and one homer.
Judge looks to be dialed in, grasping the importance of this series. He's also had some reasonably good success against Baltimore SP Grayson Rodriguez (.750 OPS, albeit in just four plate appearances), who is experiencing issues with hard contact.
Rodriguez is below league average in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity. You don't need me to tell you why that's an issue against Judge, who has been at the top of the league in these metrics for multiple seasons.
A bet on this is a bet on the value of knowing that Rodriguez will go after Judge at the plate, not shying away from throwing competitive pitches. It's also knowing that if he can avoid a strikeout (something he's done well in the last few games), he's likely to make hard contact and put himself in an excellent spot to cash this prop.
Yankees vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases
Cedric Mullins Under 1.5 total bases
I'm pairing Cedric Mullins Under 1.5 total bases for today's best bet. Mullins has one hit in six career plate appearances against Gil, and that's not a coincidence.
For starters, even with some of his recent struggles, Gil still has one of the best expected batting averages in baseball, so it's hard for anyone to get a hit off of him.
On top of that, Gil is a two-pitch thrower, with the fastball being a huge part of that arsenal. Mullins is not a good fastball hitter this season or throughout much of his career. He'll enter today with team lows in batting average and hard-hit rate against the fastball this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Orioles odds
Yankees vs Orioles live odds
Yankees vs Orioles opening odds
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-165) | Baltimore -1.5 (+140)
- Moneyline: New York +120 | Baltimore -145
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)
Yankees vs Orioles spread and Over/Under analysis
- Baltimore has held a slight advantage in this series recently, with a 6-4 advantage in the last 10 head-to-head meetings.
- Last night was just the third win for the Yankees in their last 10 games. In that time period, bettors have lost just over four units on New York.
- Baltimore hasn't been much better in that stretch. The O's have won just four of their last 10, allowing New York to stay in touch in the AL East race.
- In a series with few consistent trends, one thing stands out: regular blowouts. Nine of the last 10 games between these two teams have been won by multiple runs.
Yankees vs Orioles trend
The Yankees have hit the Run Line in 37 of their last 67 games (+11.55 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Orioles
Yankees vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oracle Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Saturday, 7-13-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Luis Gil (9-4, 3.41 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Grayson Rodriguez (10-3, 3.45 ERA) |
Yankees vs Orioles latest injuries
Yankees vs Orioles weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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