The New York Yankees hit the road to open a series against the Texas Rangers.
Even with Gerrit Cole on the mound, my Yankees vs. Rangers predictions are focusing on slugging shortstop Corey Seager to do some damage.
Read on for my MLB picks on Monday, September 2nd.
Yankees vs Rangers prediction
My best bet
Corey Seager Over 1.5 total bases (-105 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
I don't have much of an edge in this matchup. You expect New York Yankees hurler Gerrit Cole to be a decisive favorite in this spot, and he's mostly in line with my projections. The total has some value; I make it 8.2, and it's around 8.5. However, there are better bets.
Texas Rangers shortstop Corey Seager has been one of baseball's hottest hitters, and he'll continue his strong play today.
Seager matches up well against Cole despite the ace being among baseball's elite because his arsenal happens to include offerings Seager has mashed throughout his career. For instance, Cole is throwing his four-seamer over 45% of the time. To the surprise of none, Seager has been well above the league average in his career against the fastball. That's a problem for Cole against a hitter who just had an incredible August where he hit 11 home runs and had Rangers pitcher Nathan Eovaldi singing his praises.
"It's just impressive," the pitcher said of Seager last week. "We're so grateful just to be able to watch him play every day and everything that he does on a day-in, day-out basis."
Seager's homers are a big story here because another significant part of that fastball matchup is he leads all Rangers in hard-hit rate against that pitch. It's not close, either. Seager has a hard-hit rate of 62% against the fastball while the next closest Ranger is at 48%.
This has been a more significant issue than usual for Cole. Simply put, he's given up far too many hard-hit balls. He'll enter today with a hard-hit rate in the bottom 35% of the league, a barrel rate in the bottom 25%, and a ground-ball rate in the bottom 30%. All of these point to Seager having a good chance to make sharp, powerful contact.
Take Seager Over 1.5 bases. I have this closer to -130, easily the best odds for this game.
Aaron Judge pick: No free pass
My best bet
Aaron Judge Under 0.5 walks (+180 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Aaron Judge has an unbalanced history against Andrew Heaney.
In 12 plate appearances, Judge has gone yard once and slugged just over .566. However, he still needs to make contact, and those plate appearances have also come with seven strikeouts and a whiff rate of over 35%. I don't expect that to stop.
I've elected to take a different viewpoint with the juice far too high on over 0.5 strikeouts. Heaney should be much more willing to go after Judge than nibbling around the corners for an inevitable walk. That makes the price of Judge not to walk intriguing, and my projections made it closer to +160. If we at least get Heaney through the order twice, I would like the chances here with a fully rested bullpen full of strikeout pitchers.
Yankees vs Rangers same-game parlay (SGP)
Corey Seager Over 1.5 total bases
First five innings Over 4.5
This number is short. Cole's issues with the hard-hit ball could be problematic. Four Rangers hitters have a hard-hit rate above league average against the fastball. On the other side, Heaney has been well below average much of the year and I'll give the Yankees the benefit of the doubt that they can get at him within five innings.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Rangers odds
Yankees vs Rangers live odds
Yankees vs Rangers opening odds
- Moneyline: New York -190 | Texas +160
- Run line: New York -1.5 (-125) | Texas +1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100)
Yankees vs Rangers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- These teams have split their last 10 head-to-head meetings.
- The Yankees have gone .500 in their last 10 games, but have lost four of their last five.
- Meanwhile, the Rangers have been surging. They've won five of their last six and yielded bettors a profit of +2.07 units in their previous 10 games.
- Even before Texas named a starter, it took money. At publication, the Rangers moneyline price had moved nearly 15 cents since its opening number.
Yankees vs Rangers trend
The Yankees have covered the run line in 41 of their last 69 away games (+13.75 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Rangers.
Yankees vs Rangers game info
| Location: | Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Monday, 9-2-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | YES, BSSW |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Gerrit Cole (5-3, 3.86 ERA) |
| Rangers starting pitcher: | Andrew Heaney (4-13, 3.95 ERA) |
Yankees vs Rangers latest injuries
Yankees vs Rangers weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
