Yankees vs Royals ALDS Game 3 Prop Bets: Garcia Keeps It Going

Prop bet #1: Maikel Garcia Over 0.5 hits

-165 at BetMGM

Maikel Garcia is one of many Kansas City Royals who ended the regular season in a funk, but he’s quickly made that a distant memory by hitting .400 through four postseason games. After a four-hit night on Monday, he has now recorded a hit in three of those contests.

The matchup here should be a good one for Garcia, who had one of the lowest strikeout rates on the team at 16.5% this season and will combat the swing-and-miss arm on the hill for New York. His .361 Expected Batting Average this postseason is the sixth-best among those with at least 10 at-bats during these playoffs, and he’s been a menace against two of the pitches which Clarke Schmidt should lean on here to boot.

The veteran has leaned on a cutter and sinker, accounting for 56% of his deliveries, and against right-handers Garcia produced a combined .355 Expected Batting Average and .458 Expected Slugging Percentage against these offerings in the last two months of the regular season.

Entering 3-for-8 lifetime against Schmidt with a .318 xBA and .441 xSLG, I think Garcia’s total bases are certainly in play here, but I’ll gladly take the steep discount on Kansas City’s hottest hitter coming up with just one knock.

Prop bet #2: Clarke Schmidt Over 3.5 strikeouts

-138 at FanDuel

This should be an excellent spot to play Clarke Schmidt’s strikeout total, and as of Wednesday afternoon we’re being afforded an incredible buy-low spot on the New York Yankees right-hander.

Schmidt made 16 starts this season, and in only one outing against the Cubs in his first start back off the injured list in early September did he fail to strike out at least four batters. The best part is that Schmidt hasn’t exactly needed to go deep into games to rack up punchouts, either, completing six frames just two times all year.

This is a guy who’s sat in or around the Top 25% of all pitchers in whiff rate and strikeout rate all season long, finishing with a solid clip of 26.3% in the latter.

Kansas City stumbled down the stretch offensively, striking out in an unsightly 26.4% of plate appearances over the final two weeks of the regular season.

New York’s bullpen was worked to the bone in Game 2 on Monday with every arm other than Luis Gil being used, and as Schmidt enters into a friendly matchup as a strikeout arm, he should be afforded a long leash here as he quickly finds the strikeouts required to push towards this very generous line.

Prop bet #3: Giancarlo Stanton Over 0.5 walks

+180 at BetMGM

Betting on walks can be a tricky proposition, particularly against a pitcher who’s been one of the best in the game at limiting free passes, but the spot is right to back Giancarlo Stanton to trot on over to first base on Wednesday night.

Sure, Seth Lugo has walked fewer than 6% of the batters he’s faced this year and is right around 6% for his career, but his lifetime walk rate against the Yankees stands at an eye-catching 9.3%. It makes sense considering this has been one of the pickiest lineups in baseball, and it would make even more sense that one of the team’s most patient bats would find a way to rack up a base on balls.

Stanton has walked twice in 16 plate appearances against Lugo for a 12.5% clip, and so far this postseason he owns a solid 11.1% walk rate. That number now stands at 11.3% over the course of his last 24 postseason games dating back to 2019, and he’s already found one walk through two games during these playoffs.

Lugo should try to pitch around the middle of the zone against one of New York’s most dangerous hitters, particularly with Jazz Chisholm and Anthony Volpe struggling behind him, and as a result I see plenty of value in this number.