It’s been a can’t-miss start to the NLDS between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres in a series that’s seen a dramatic spark to an intense rivalry.
The Padres grabbed a narrow 6-5 victory on Tuesday night to go up 2-1 in the series and require one more win to secure advancement. With his back against the wall, my Dodgers vs. Padres prediction expects Shohei Ohtani's bat to do the heavy lifting tonight.
Read on for my MLB picks for Wednesday, October 9.
Dodgers vs Padres prediction
Who will win Dodgers vs Padres Game 4?
The Los Angeles Dodgers will win Game 4. This series has been too good, too back-and-forth, and too intense to end without the full allotment of games being played. Sure, it’s sketchy that LA is out of starting pitchers whereas the San Diego Padres are throwing their ace — but the Dodgers have been fantastic out of the pen while Dylan Cease is throwing on three days’ rest for the first time in his career.
My Dodgers vs Padres best bet
Pick
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 total bases (+112 at BetRivers)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
I can’t pass up the plus money on Shohei Ohtani eclipsing 1.5 total bases in a win-or-go-home scenario.
The Padres are opting to roll Cease out on three days' rest. This will be the first time in his six-year career that he’s done so, adding a level of uncertainty to his handicap.
The 28-year-old featured in Game 1, lasting just 3 1/3 innings while surrendering five earned runs on six hits and two walks. Each of his last two outings has come against LA as he allowed three earned on five hits and three walks over five innings in his last regular-season start.
Cease is a great pitcher, but he’s struggled in each of his last two starts against this opponent. The Dodgers have seen him a lot lately and are used to his offerings, and he’s entering unfamiliar territory with this appearance coming on short rest.
Hence, the Ohtani play. The superstar homered off Cease in Game 1, going 2-for-5 with three RBI and two runs. He’s gotten the best of Cease in his career, going 4-for-15 with two home runs and a 1.086 OPS.
Cease relies heavily on his four-seamer (47.4%) and slider (38.2%) against left-handed batters. That’s music to Ohtani’s ears as those are the two pitches he hits the best, posting a .329 xBA and .722 xSLG against four seamers and a .314 xBA and .802 xSLG against sliders.
Ohtani has obliterated RHP with a 202 wRC+ and .462 wOBA. With his team’s season on the line, I expect the otherworldly slugger to come through in the clutch.
Dodgers vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Shohei Ohtani 2+ total bases
Dodgers moneyline
Under 8
Ohtani having a successful day at the dish will go a long way toward a Dodger victory. Freddie Freeman (ankle) was hobbled after stepping awkwardly on first base late in Game 3 and it’s uncertain if he’ll have a big impact tonight, meaning Ohtani will be even more integral to his team’s success than usual.
Dave Roberts is opting for a bullpen game tonight. They’ve been solid in relief with a 3.57 xFIP and a 1.07 WHIP since September 15, so they will probably get better results than they did a day ago when an ineffective Walker Buehler took the L.
Each of the series' first three games has cashed the Over, but I’m selling high and looking the other way.
Winds of 5.8 mph will be blowing in toward first base, so the weather doesn’t help the offense. Cease is on short rest but he’s still an ace, and manager Mike Shildt will have a quick trigger considering San Diego’s bullpen is relatively well-rested thanks to Yu Darvish going seven strong innings in Game 2.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Dodgers vs Padres odds
Dodgers vs Padres live odds
Dodgers vs Padres opening odds
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +120 | San Diego -140
- Run line: Los Angeles +1.5 (-180) | San Diego -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115)
Dodgers vs Padres moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- San Diego has gotten the best of this matchup, winning 10 of its last 15 games against these rivals.
- San Diego has won seven straight games at Petco Park.
- LA has won each of its last four outings when it utilized a bullpen game.
- Looking at the Under is certainly a contrarian play as LA has gone 9-1 O/U in its last 10 road games.
Dodgers vs Padres trend
Ohtani has exceeded 1.5 total bases in seven of his last 10 games, averaging 3.3 total bases over that span. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Padres.
Dodgers vs Padres Game 4 info
| Location: | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 10-9-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:08 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | TBD |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Dylan Cease (0-0, 13.50 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Padres latest injuries
Dodgers vs Padres weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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