The New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals are tied at one game apiece as the ALDS shifts to the Midwest.
With two good pitchers on the mound, this game will likely be closely fought. That said, our Yankees vs. Royals predictions see one pitcher in pinstripes with a clear advantage early.
Read on for my MLB picks for Wednesday, October 9th. Looking for more? Well, we've also got a trio of Yankees vs. Royals props to choose from.
Yankees vs Royals prediction
Who will win Yankees vs Royals Game 3?
The New York Yankees will win this game.
As this series goes deeper, New York's experience should show. In a broad sense, pitchers with barrel issues have yet to fare well against the Yankees this season. Seth Lugo is a very talented pitcher, but unfortunately for the Kansas City Royals, his fatal flaw will be the decider here.
My Yankees vs Royals best bet
Pick
Yankees F5 moneyline (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Lugo has been quite solid throughout the year. Most importantly, perhaps to this number, is what he did against the Yankees his last time out — it was one of his best games of this season.
He put up seven scoreless innings while striking out 10 Yankees in the process on September 10. Again, he was brilliant, but the metrics don't look upon him favorably here. They suggest he'll struggle, and I'm inclined to back that logic rather than bank on an impressive one-off (not to mention he allowed four or more earned runs in his prior two outings against New York before that one).
Lugo comes into this game with a barrel and hard-hit rates below the league average. The barrel rate has been slightly worse, so he's given up some runs to the more power-reliant teams he's started against.
Lugo also pairs this combo by leaning on the fastball. If you've followed my articles this season, you know that exploiting this angle with betting on New York has been very profitable. That's because the Yankees are one of the best fastball-hitting teams thanks largely to Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, who barrel up fastballs better than nearly everyone.
On the side for New York is Clarke Schmidt. Despite some fan narratives surrounding him (mostly from Yankees supporters), Schmidt has been quite impressive this season.
There's no real apparent weak spot in his game. At least not the ones you'd think are exploitable by Kansas City.
He has walked too many batters, but only one team has walked fewer times than Kansas City this season. He's relied on getting chases outside the zone to generate swings and misses, thus extending his outings. The Royals rank seventh in chase rate. You also sense that they'll be more eager to swing tonight, given they are back home and making their first postseason appearance at Kauffman Stadium.
I made this price -122 and will gladly play it at -110. New York is built to attack Lugo's weaknesses, and the Royals must show the patience at the plate needed to make Schmidt labor. They haven't been able to do so most of the season.
Yankees vs Royals same-game parlay (SGP)
Yankees F5 -0.5
Clarke Schmidt Over 3.5 strikeouts
Yes, it will be Schmidt's first postseason start, but this is quite a low number. It feels much more attainable when you consider that he's faced three other teams ranking Top 10 in chase rate and struck out at least five each time. I'll take my chances here.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Royals odds
Yankees vs Royals live odds
Yankees vs Royals opening odds
- Moneyline: New York -115 | Kansas City -105
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+145) | Kansas City +1.5 (-170)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105)
Yankees vs Royals moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Yankees are 5-5 in their last 10, losing bettors just over two units.
- Kansas City is now 7-3 over its last 10 games, which has made bettors nearly five units in profit.
- New York has had a slight advantage in this matchup, winning six of the last seven head-to-head matchups.
- The Under has been a good bet when the pair has met, with three of the last four meetings going in that direction.
Yankees vs Royals trend
The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 81 away games (+19.00 Units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Royals.
Yankees vs Royals Game 3 info
| Location: | Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date: | Wednesday, 10-9-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:08 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Clarke Schmidt (5-5, 2.85 ERA) |
| Royals starting pitcher: | Seth Lugo (16-9, 3.00 ERA) |
Yankees vs Royals latest injuries
Yankees vs Royals weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
