The Miami Heat head back home tonight for Game 3 of their first-round series against the Boston Celtics. NBA odds have the Celtics as -200 favorites to win the Eastern Conference, but this series is tied up at one game apiece after the Heat shocked the C's as 14-point underdogs in Beantown on Wednesday.
Oddsmakers expect the Celtics to bounce back with a win as they are 9.5-point chalk on the road. Here are my best free Celtics vs. Heat predictions and NBA picks for Saturday, April 27.
Celtics vs Heat predictions
My best bet
Celtics -9.5 (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
The Miami Heat pulled off the upset in Game 2 but they had to go crazy from deep, knocking down 23 of 43 shots (53.5%) from beyond the arc. However, the Boston Celtics were fourth in the league in opponent 3-point percentage (35.2%) and limited foes to 12.9 treys per game during the regular season. The Heat also averaged a modest 12.5 threes per game at a 37% clip, so expect regression to the mean tonight.
If the Heat aren't hitting 3s at an absurd rate, they won't be able to keep up with a dominant Celtics squad that should be locked in after a disappointing defeat. The Celtics were easily the best team in the NBA during the regular season, going 64-18 with an average scoring margin of +11.3 points per game.
They hammered the Heat by 20 points in the first game of this series and they defeated them in all three regular season meetings, including a 143-110 beatdown in Miami in January. Miami even had All-Star Jimmy Butler in that showdown but he's been sidelined by an injury in this series along with starting guard Terry Rozier and key reserve Josh Richardson.
The Heat haven't benefitted much from home-court advantage this season, going 17-25 ATS and ranking 22nd in opponent effective field goal percentage (55.5%). The Celtics have a bevy of scoring weapons and boast an NBA-best 56.6 eFG% on the road. Back the Celtics in a bounce-back spot here.
Celtics vs Heat same-game parlay (SGP)
Celtics -9.5
Over 204.5
Bam Adebayo Under 3.5 assists
Game 1 of this series had an O/U of 210 and the Under barely cashed with a total of 208 points scored. Nonetheless, we saw oddsmakers lower the total by nearly five points in Game 2, and the Over hit in a 111-101 Heat victory.
We're seeing a total of just 204.5 for this contest, which is interesting when you consider the home/away splits for Miami. The Heat average 112.1 ppg at home, significantly better than their 107.8 ppg on the road. However, they are also surprisingly worse defensively at the Kaseya Center, where they allow 109.8 ppg. Even though I'm expecting Miami's red-hot outside shooting to regress from Game 2, the total is too low here.
Bam Adebayo's assist numbers have ticked down over the last month. By the end of March he was averaging 4.0 assists and 6.5 potential assists per game. In 12 total games this month (regular season, play-in, and playoff) he's averaging 2.9 apg and 5.4 potential apg across eight contests. With Adebayo going below this number in nine of his last 12 games (including both contests this series), expect him to go Under it again.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Celtics vs Heat odds
Celtics vs Heat live odds
Get the latest Celtics vs Heat NBA playoff odds for Game 3.
Celtics vs Heat opening odds
- Spread: Boston -8 | Miami +8
- Moneyline: Boston -320 | Miami +260
- Over/Under: Over 205.5 | Under 205.5
Celtics vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis
- Early money has come in on the Celtics, moving their line from -8 to -9.5. The total ticked down slightly from 205.5 to 204.5.
- The Celtics finished the regular season with the highest offensive rating and the second-best defensive rating in the NBA.
- The Celtics have gone just 4-7-2 ATS over the last month.
- Butler is Miami's best player but the Heat are 14-10 SU and ATS without him in the lineup this season.
Celtics vs Heat trend
Miami is 1-9 ATS as an underdog at home this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Heat.
Celtics vs Heat game info
| Location: | Kaseya Center, Miami, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, 4-27-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Celtics vs Heat latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
