It’s been a bumpy January so far for the Memphis Grizzlies, but they can wrap up their mini road trip on a high note tonight as they take on the San Antonio Spurs for the second time in three days.
Memphis got the upper hand in the teams’ midweek meeting, and even with Ja Morant listed as questionable, my Grizzlies vs. Spurs predictions point to the visitors having the last laugh here.
My NBA picks take a closer look at this January 17 battle, with a big focus on Morant’s backcourt mate.
Grizzlies vs Spurs prediction
My best bet
Desmond Bane Over 19.5 points (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
The Memphis Grizzlies are at their best when Ja Morant is in turbo mode and Jaren Jackson Jr. is swatting shots, but don’t sleep on what Desmond Bane brings to the table as a creator and floor-spacer.
Though the Grizzlies are just 5-5 in their last 10 games, Bane has found his stroke during that stretch, going past the 20-point mark in seven of his last eight contests.
Bane has shot 41% from downtown since the start of December, but he’s not just doing his damage with the 3-ball. In fact, he’s shooting 56% from the field overall this month, including an impressive 8-for-13 effort on Wednesday against the same San Antonio Spurs defense that he’ll see here.
Memphis surged to a 129-115 victory that night, and there’s every reason to expect the visitors’ offense to show again tonight.
Victor Wembanyama walls off the rim, but that’s not really Bane’s game anyway. He’s happy to feast from beyond the arc and in the mid-range, and he averaged 25 ppg against San Antonio last season.
If Ja Morant sits out or doesn’t have his usual spark, Bane is more than capable of taking on more of the workload, and I like the Over on his points prop with the line at a generous 19.5.
When Morant missed a clash with the Phoenix Suns on New Year’s Eve, Bane exploded for 31 points on 13-for-25 shooting. Buckle up for more fireworks tonight at Frost Bank Center.
Grizzlies vs Spurs same-game parlay
Desmond Bane Over 19.5 points
Grizzlies moneyline
Stephon Castle Under 4.5 assists
The Grizzlies have owned this matchup in recent years, winning nine of the past 10 meetings, including the last six in San Antonio, and I’m backing their depth and league-leading offense to trump Wemby here.
Memphis is 27-14 ATS this year, while the Spurs have dropped four of their last five games, giving up more than 120 points in three of those losses. The Ja injury question mark is significant, but there’s a decent chance he suits up – and the visitors could still grind out a victory tonight with Bane and Jackson Jr. in the lead roles, plus Santi Aldama shining off the bench.
I’m also fading the Stephon Castle assists total. Sharing the floor with Point God Chris Paul means taking a backseat when it comes to playmaking, and Castle has finished with four or fewer dimes in nine of his past 11 outings.
Though the Spurs racked up 115 points in the teams’ midweek matchup, this is still a middle-of-the-pack offense with a below-average mark from downtown. That puts some limits on Castle’s numbers, and I see the San Antonio rookie hitting the Under on his assists prop here.
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Grizzlies vs Spurs odds
Grizzlies vs Spurs live odds
Grizzlies vs Spurs opening odds
- Spread: Memphis -2.5 (-110) | San Antonio +2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Memphis -140 | San Antonio +120
- Over/Under: Over 239 (-110) | Under 239 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Grizzlies vs Spurs spread and Over/Under analysis
- Memphis enters as a slight favorite to improve on its 26-15 record, and the line could jump once Morant’s status is confirmed.
- San Antonio is 20-19 ATS this season but has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games.
- With the Grizzlies serving up an NBA-best 123 ppg this year, it’s no surprise that the Over is 25-14-2 across their 41 contests.
- The Spurs have hit the Under in six of their last nine games, and the 1H Under has been a winning ticket in 46 of their past 76 outings.
Grizzlies vs Spurs trend
The Grizzlies have cashed in the Over in 26 of their last 36 road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Spurs.
How to watch Grizzlies vs Spurs
| Location: | Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, Texas |
| Date: | Friday, 1-17-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FDSN SE, FDSN SW |
Grizzlies vs Spurs latest injuries
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