Do not let desperation disguise a team’s true nature. The Phoenix Suns may be desperate for a win to try to stay out of the lesser of the Western Conference Play-In games, if not snag home-court advantage in the more desirable Play-In game. But that does not change the reality that the Suns have not put together a sustained stretch of success this season.
The New Orleans Pelicans found one through most of February and March, only and arguably tapering off in the last week or so. Is losing to the Thunder and the Celtics really that worrisome? They stand atop their respective conferences for a reason.
The NBA odds should not be within a bucket, yet it is an homage to Phoenix’s need for this win while New Orleans’ momentum diminished this week. We will disregard that intangible motivation and focus on the suddenly underrated home team in our free NBA picks and predictions as we preview the Suns vs. the Pelicans on Monday, April 1, with tip set for 8:00 ET.
Suns vs Pelicans predictions
My best bet: Pelicans -1 (-110 at Caesars)
As long as Brandon Ingram remains sidelined with a knee bruise, backing the New Orleans Pelicans will make some folks worry. That is fair, New Orleans is still plenty good without the scoring swingman, but it is not as intimidating.
The greatest New Orleans difference in the last five games without Ingram has been offensively, unsurprisingly. Comparing the month before his injury to the five games since, the Pelicans’ offense is scoring 3.7 points fewer per 100 possessions. But some of that dropoff should be ascribed to New Orleans’ opponents.
Two of those five rank in the Top 10 in defensive rating since the All-Star Break. All five rank No. 16 or higher. The Pelicans’ offense may be just fine without Ingram, in all of reality.
What is not conditional, not uncertain, not dubious is that New Orleans’s defense is still a strength. Its defensive rating has fallen by just a tenth of a point without Ingram, despite facing three offenses ranking in the top 10 since the All-Star Break, including the No. 1 Boston Celtics.
Losing Ingram’s shotmaking has mattered, with the Pelicans going 3-2 outright without him and 2-3 against the spread. Losing his length will cost them defensively at some point, but it has not yet.
This spread being within a bucket makes little sense and the assumption is the downgrade is ascribed to Ingram’s injury. But that is a mistake. New Orleans has not fallen off without Ingram, not as much as this spread suggests.
Suns vs Pelicans same-game parlay
Pelicans -1.5
CJ McCollum Over 23.5 points
CJ McCollum Over 3.5 made threes
Do not overthink this. In the month before Ingram’s injury, CJ McCollum averaged 17 points across 13 games while making 3.1 threes on 7.8 attempts per game. In the five games since — and to reiterate, those five games were largely against quality defenses — McCollum has averaged 25 points while making 4.4 threes on 10.4 attempts per game.
Ingram was taking 14.3 shots per game, including 3.3 threes. Someone needed to pick up that slack, and looking at the Pelicans’ roster, it was natural to assume it would be McCollum.
Zion Williamson’s shot selection is drastically different than Ingram’s, and only Trey Murphy shoots nearly as well from deep as Ingram and McCollum. Murphy’s production has slipped of late, a better defender on him with Ingram sidelined. McCollum still faces the same point guard-quality defender he did before Ingram’s injury. And against that defense, McCollum’s increased workload leads to increased production.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Suns vs Pelicans odds and trends
Suns vs Pelicans opening odds
- Spread: Phoenix -1 | New Orleans +1
- Moneyline: Phoenix -110 | New Orleans -101
- Over/Under: Over 225 | Under 225
Suns vs Pelicans spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread opened on Sunday afternoon with the Suns laying a point, but has since flipped sides with the home side now laying -1.5.
- That kind of line movement is not as indicative as it may seem. Until a basketball game can end in a tie, lines moving between +/- 1 are effectively moving one point, not two.
- The total opened at 225.5 and dropped to 224.5 before Monday’s sunrise, ticking down to 223.5 early in the afternoon.
Suns vs Pelicans betting trend to know
The Pelicans have cashed 14 Unders in 19 games since the All-Star Break, their defense the key to their surge up the standings. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Pelicans.
Suns vs Pelicans game info
| Location: | Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA |
| Date: | Monday, April 1, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports New Orleans, Arizona's Family Sports |
Not intended for use in MA.
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