Thunder vs Jazz Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: A Walking Rebounder

The Oklahoma City Thunder continue to impress. Led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who ranks second in NBA MVP odds, the Thunder have won eight of their last 10 games to pull into a tie with the Minnesota Timberwolves for the top spot in the Western Conference.

OKC will take on another upstart team in the West when they head to the Delta Center to take on the Utah Jazz on Tuesday night.

The Jazz cooled off following a stretch which saw them win 12 of 14 games. However, Utah is coming off an impressive victory over the Milwaukee Bucks and will be looking to exact some revenge after dropping the first two meetings against Oklahoma City this season.

The NBA odds think the Jazz will have a shot as 3-point home underdogs but will the Thunder roll? I break down this Western Conference matchup and bring you the best bet in my NBA picks and predictions Thunder vs. Jazz.

Thunder vs Jazz odds

Thunder vs Jazz predictions

What the Oklahoma City Thunder are doing this season is impressive. 

The Thunder have won eight of their last 10 games to sit at 35-15. Good for a tie atop the Western Conference standings. They’ve also been as reliable a bet as there is in the NBA, going 31-19 ATS. OKC ranks second in net rating and along with the Celtics are one of just two teams in the Top 5 of both offensive and defensive rating.

They are a fun, young team full of athletes, who get after it on defense and have a few dynamic players leading the way.

Not the least of which is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is +230 to win the NBA MVP Award, behind only Nikola Jokic.

Even with all those things going in the Thunder’s favor, there is one place where NBA bettors can fade them, and that is on the glass.

Despite being an athletic group, the Thunder aren’t a traditionally big team, and it has cost them on the boards. Oklahoma City owns the third-worst rebounding rate in the NBA and surrenders the sixth most opponent rebounds per game. Guess what the Utah Jazz excel at — rebounding. 

The Jazz have climbed into the play-in picture in the West thanks to a 12-2 run that started just before the Christmas break. Part of that run has to be attributed to the team’s depth. Utah is running nine guys deep these days and it has paid off. One of the key cogs of the bench unit is center Walker Kessler.

The second-year man out of Auburn spent most of his rookie season starting but was moved to the bench early in the year. It looks like that move not only benefited the player, but the team as well. Despite mostly playing with the second unit, Kessler is still averaging 8.2 points and 7.0 rebounds per game as a reserve.

With Kessler, Lauri Markkanen, and John Collins leading the way, the Jazz are one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA, ranking second in rebounding rate. I don’t expect that to change in tonight’s matchup against the Thunder.

Kessler has grabbed seven or more boards in each of his last four games and six of his last nine overall. That includes hauling in 11 when these teams last met on Jan. 18. Take the Over 6.5 on Kessler’s rebounding prop tonight.

My best bet: Walker Kessler Over 6.5 rebounds (-108 at FanDuel)

Thunder vs Jazz same-game parlay

Walker Kessler Over 6.5 rebounds

Lauri Markkanen Over 8.5 rebounds

Chet Holmgren Over 2.5 assists

+518 at FanDuel

Walker Kessler won’t be the only Jazz player cleaning the glass in this matchup. We can’t forget about Lauri Markkanen. The 7-footer is averaging 8.6 rebounds per game this season and that bumps up to 9.1 over his last 15 games. Markkanen has grabbed nine or more boards 11 times over this 15-game stretch which includes 10 in the previous matchup against the Thunder.

Let’s make this SGP 7-footer-themed and round it out with a Chet Holmgren prop. The Thunder rookie is averaging 16.8 points and 7.5 rebounds per game this season. But surprise! We’re looking at his assists. 

Holmgren is averaging 2.8 assists per game this season and that number has increased to 3.2 over 19 games since the start of January. He’s recorded three or more assists 10 times in his last 14 games and dished out five dimes when he last played the Jazz. Take the Over 2.5 Holmgren assists.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Thunder vs Jazz spread and Over/Under analysis

This will be the third time the Thunder and Jazz have tangled this season, with Oklahoma City getting the better of Utah in the previous two meetings.

The Thunder won the first meeting in OKC back on Dec. 11, by a score of 134-120, managing to barely cover the 13.5-point chalk while the game cruised Over the 236 total. But that was before the Jazz kind of found themselves.

The latest meeting back on Jan. 18 was much closer. The Jazz were just 3-point home underdogs in that matchup and put up a good fight for most of the game before the Thunder pulled out a 134-129 win. Once again the matchup went Over a now 10-point higher total of 246.

This time around the Jazz are once again 3-point home pups. Now, the Jazz have been a much better team at home this season. They are 16-7 SU and 17-6 ATS at the Delta Center. But while Utah has an edge on the glass, OKC has one pretty much everywhere else.

Most importantly, while the Jazz offense has been much improved, the defense is still working to catch up. Utah ranks 25th in defensive rating and 20th in opponent effective field goal percentage and will need to try and contain SGA and an OKC offense that ranks fifth in offensive rating and third in eFG%.

I have a slight lean to the Thunder here, but the Jazz’s prowess at home means I prefer OKC on the moneyline tonight.

It’s the total that has seen the most change. We’ve seen totals of 236, 246 and today it’s sitting kind of in the middle at 241. That adjustment is interesting considering the only key player on the injury report in this matchup is Jalen Williams. The Jazz have been putting up a ton of points at home. The Thunder are a great offensive team. I'm not sure I understand the adjustment so would lean toward the Over going 3-0 in this matchup. 

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Thunder vs Jazz betting trend to know

The Jazz have hit the Team Total Over in 45 of their last 69 games for +17.75 units. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Jazz.

Thunder vs Jazz game info

Thunder vs Jazz latest injuries

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