Arizona vs Oregon Odds, Picks and Predictions: Ducks Stand Tall Against Wildcats

The No. 9 Arizona Wildcats head to Eugene to face the conference-leading Oregon Ducks in a marquee matchup out west on Saturday. 

All eyes will be on Tommy Lloyd’s team to see how they bounce back following Thursday’s embarrassing 83-80 loss to Oregon State at the buzzer. Do the Wildcats simply want to get out of the state of Oregon as quickly as possible, or will they rebound quickly to stave off the taste of defeat?

Oregon is finally close to full health after suffering in that department for much of the year, setting the stage for a scintillating showdown. Looking at college basketball odds, the Wildcats are four-point favorites while the total is set at 157.5. 

What do the recent history between these two programs and home/away splits indicate? Check out my free college basketball picks and predictions for Arizona vs. Oregon on Saturday, January 27 to find out.

Arizona vs Oregon best odds

Arizona vs Oregon picks and predictions

The fact the Oregon Ducks sit atop the Pac-12 standings despite facing a myriad of injuries means Dana Altman deserves his flowers. 

The team’s two best big men, N’Faly Dante (14 points, 8.8 rebounds per game) and Nate Bittle (11.5 points, 4.8 rpg) have combined to start just eight games, while high four-star freshman Mookie Cook has appeared in just five games with recurring ankle/foot injuries. 

Central Michigan transfer Jesse Zarzuela (10 ppg) appeared in just five games before suffering an ankle injury that required surgery that will sideline him for the remainder of the season. No matter. The Ducks have not only managed to stay afloat but lead the Pac-12 as enter late January. 

Dante has returned for the last four games and has been ramped up to full speed, playing 59 total minutes over the last two games while scoring 39 points, grabbing 16 rebounds, and blocking five shots. 

Bittle returned this week against Arizona State, notching seven points, one rebound, and an assist nine weeks removed from left wrist surgery. Cook is considered questionable but was in a walking boot earlier in the week so is therefore unlikely to make a major contribution even if he does play. 

The Ducks will need everything they have to stave off the visiting Arizona Wildcats, a team ranked No. 9 nationally and checking in fifth overall in KenPom. Tommy Lloyd’s team is a threat to win it all with an elite offense (eighth in adjusted offensive efficiency) and defense (13th). 

Despite the immense talent and potential, the Wildcats haven’t hit their exact groove in a while. They last won more than two straight games on December 9, struggling with consistency and road games since. 

The road bugaboo got them again on Thursday as they led Oregon State 44-36 at the half but ultimately fell 83-80 on a Jordan Pope buzzer-beater. Lloyd’s defense struggled to contain Pope all game long, allowing him to post 31 points on just 15 shot attempts. 

To truly establish themselves as a team ready to compete for the National Championship, the Wildcats will need to play better away from home. That’s something they simply haven’t proved this season and is a big concern in this spot. Arizona is now just 2-3 on the road this season and has dropped three straight conference away games. 

Where does that leave us for Saturday’s clash in Eugene? 

This has typically been a difficult road visit for the Wildcats, who last won at Oregon in 2015. It’s hard to expect Arizona to completely get back on track on a short turnaround against a coach like Dana Altman in a venue that has given Zona plenty of fits. 

The Ducks have won three of the last four meetings with the Wildcats by double-digits and have an average margin of victory of 14.3 points. Oregon is trending up with the lineup receiving a few significant boosts, while Arizona is trending down and has notably struggled on the road. 

I’ll grab the points with the Ducks, who are 7-3 ATS at Matthew Knight Arena this season and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Wildcats. 

My best bet: Oregon +4 (-110 at bet365)

Arizona vs Oregon same-game parlay

Oregon +4

Over 157

N'Faly Dante Over 14.5 points

Pelle Larsson Over 12.5 points

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+750 at DraftKings

The total has dipped as low as 157 and I’m grabbing the Over at that number. The Ducks are 11-8 O/U this season including a run of four Overs in their last five games. Arizona, meanwhile, has tended to get into high-scoring games on the road where its defense tends to be lax. The Wildcats are 8-2 O/U in their last 10 road games. 

These teams have typically gotten into high-scoring affairs, going 6-1 O/U across the last seven meetings. Two players I think will be doing a lot of scoring are Dante for the Ducks and Pelle Larsson for the Wildcats. 

I’ll grab Dante to exceed his point total of 14.5 considering he’s averaging 19.5 ppg in his last two games now that he’s finally ramped up to full speed. He’s crossed the 14.5-point threshold in all three games where he’s played a full allotment of minutes. 

Larsson’s point prop is set at 12.5 — a number he’s exceeded in three straight games and in five of his last six. Much has been made lately about sophomore guard Kylan Boswell’s struggles (14 points on 5-for-26 shooting across his last four games) and I expect Larsson to be a statistical beneficiary as he provides ready-made offense for a team with one of its lead guards currently riding the struggle bus. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Arizona vs Oregon spread and Over/Under analysis

The line opened at Arizona -4.5 before dropping down to -3 at most locations. It’s since moved up to either -3.5 or -4 depending where you look. Both teams have been very profitable with an identical 12-7 ATS record. 

If you give the line movement tool a look, you might notice the total has also been on the move. It opened as high as 163 at some shops before being bet down to 157.5 at current. 

I don’t agree with the movement on the total considering the recent history between these two programs indicates that they tend to combine for high-scoring games. 

Arizona’s defense has faltered at times on the road, surrendering 84.3 ppg across its last four such games. Considering the sample size includes games against, shall we say, non-elite programs like Cal, Stanford, and Oregon State, there may be cause for concern. 

Lloyd’s defense typically forces opponents to the mid-range, ranking 320th in mid-range attempt rate on defense per Haslametrics. The thing is, Oregon has been pretty adept at knocking down these looks, converting on 42.1% of 2-point jumpers (51st nationally per Hoop-Math). 

Arizona vs Oregon betting trend to know

Oregon is 8-2 ATS across the last 10 meetings between these two schools. Find more college basketball betting trends for Arizona vs. Oregon.

Arizona vs Oregon game info

Arizona vs Oregon key injuries

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