It’s an all-Pac-12 showdown Sunday at Maples Pavilion, as the fourth-ranked Arizona Wildcats pay a visit to the Stanford Cardinal.
The Wildcats opened conference play with a demolition of the Cal Golden Bears, while the Cardinal took a tough L to start their Pac-12 calendar against Arizona State.
The home team is a big 13-point underdog in the college basketball odds, though Arizona hasn’t put together back-to-back wins since early December.
Read below for my free college basketball picks and best Arizona vs. Stanford bet on Sunday, December 31.
Arizona vs Stanford best odds
Arizona vs Stanford picks and predictions
The Wildcats come in as a pretty complete package, leading the nation in scoring, pumping in 93.2 points per game on an elite 50.1% shooting clip. They don’t shoot a lot of threes, but they hit a Top-50 rate of 37.1%.
Their 100-81 win over Cal last time out is now the seventh time this year they’ve topped 90 points in a game, and fourth eclipsing the century total.
And yet, their second-ranked defensive efficiency mark at KenPom tops their offensive efficiency, which sits sixth.
Arizona holds opponents to 41% shooting from the field (87th) and 31.8% from beyond the arc (136th).
They’re exceptional on the glass, limiting opponents to just 27.1 rebounds per game and just 20.6 defensive rebounds, which is second-best. That’s helped along by the fact the Wildcats are also 18th in the nation in offensive rebounding, grabbing 12.2 per game.
Not exactly the best opponent for a Stanford team that’s reeling a little after losing to Arizona State 76-73, a game it led almost wire-to-wire, save for the final minute, when the Sun Devils eventually prevailed.
The Cardinal are a respectable 115th in scoring this year, putting up 77.9 points per game, and they shoot it at a solid 47.8% from the field.
Their problems are on the other side of the ball, where they give up 74.7 points per game, which ranks a distant 273rd in the NCAA.
As a team, Stanford checks in just inside KenPom’s Top 100, but it’s at 118th in defensive efficiency.
We mentioned Arizona hasn’t strung together back-to-back wins since Dec 2 and 9, but itsrecent losses — the only two on the year — are both notable.
One was to second-ranked Purdue, and the other was a one-point OT loss to a 14th-ranked and supercharged Florida Atlantic squad with their its real challenge after making a Final Four run last year.
To me, the win is a foregone conclusion, but the 'Zona -900 moneyline odds offer no value. Instead, let’s focus on the total. Despite a solid defensive ranking, the Wildcats surrender 71.2 points per game.
Assuming their offense does its thing, there should be enough room to climb Over the points.
My best bet: Over 161.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)
Arizona vs Stanford same-game parlay
Over 161.5 points
Caleb Love Over 15.5 points
Oumar Ballo Over 12.5 points
Want more juice? Try this three-leg, same-game parlay, tacking on two of Arizona’s key pieces.
Start with senior transfer Caleb Love, Arizona’s leading scorer at 16.9 points per game.
He’s been on a stellar run, dropping 20+ points in four of his last five contests, including 22 last time out against Cal. There’s plenty of top-tier competition mixed into this run too: Love scored 26 against 14th-ranked FAU, a season-best 29 against third-ranked Purdue and 20 against no. 23 Wisconsin.
It doesn’t seem out of the ordinary for him to go for 16 against Stanford.
We’ll wrap it up with center Oumar Ballo, who’s been on his own little fun-run. The seven-foot senior is coming off a 17-point, 11-rebound performance vs the Golden Bears giving him three straight double-double performances.
The interest here is his scoring, and the line seems a bit generous at 12.5 points. Ballo has gone Over that total six straight games.
I think the matchup with another big talented big man, 7’1” Frenchman Maxime Raynaud, is the extra motivation he needs. Raynaud has led the Cardinal in scoring the last two games, while leading the team in rebounding in all but one game this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Arizona vs Stanford spread and Over/Under analysis
The lowest spread for this game has been 11.5 points, but that figure didn’t last long. Every book has pushed it up at least one point, with several sites getting as high as 13.5 points.
The Wildcats are among the best spread bets in college basketball, going 10-2-0 against the spread. They have covered every double-digit point spread, going 5-0-0 ATS.
Stanford is hovering around .500, with their record 5-6-0 ATS. They have failed to cover the spread in their last two games.
As for the total, the highest scoring team in the nation is in the building, and the books have opened at 160.5, and have slightly increased, the most so far by another point.
The Over is a surprising 7-3-1 in Stanford games this season, though they’ve had just one game where the total has gone higher than 154 points.
Arizona has hit the Over just five times in 10 games, but they have faced some very high lines, with just two games set under 153.5 points.
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Arizona vs Stanford betting trend to know
Arizona has hit the Over in nine of their last 13 road games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Arizona vs. Stanford.
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Arizona vs Stanford game info
| Location: | Maples Pavilion, Stanford, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, December 31, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Pac-12 Network |
Arizona vs Stanford key injuries
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