Will this March Madness bracket be perfect? I can only dream.
More likely, some moment on Thursday afternoon will dash those outlandish thoughts. That afternoon alone, my NCAA Tournament bracket projects two double-digit seeds winning.
As much as my bracket leans into chalk, there are 15 wins from double-digit seeds in the early rounds. Finding that balance between predictability and chaos is the delight of March Madness.
Consider this my best effort at picking 63 games correctly, knowing if I nail so many as 50, I should be in a profitable position this spring.
Douglas Farmer's March Madness Bracket for 2025
Our best March Madness picks
The SEC dominates this field with 14 teams. Only four times before has a conference landed as many as nine teams in the bracket. Those 38 total bids over four tournaments yielded just three total Final Four teams.
That realization limited the SEC’s ceiling while pondering this bracket, and with Auburn not only the best team in the SEC but also enjoying the easiest region, the Tigers became the clear and sole SEC representative in this projected Final Four.
BYU knocks out Duke based on the Cougars’ hot shooting of late. In its last 13 games, BYU has made 37.0% of its 3-pointers, taking them on half its field goals. That kind of rate could spark a run, and it creates a math problem for any opponent, particularly one that might see its offense downtick a bit if Cooper Flagg’s ankle is anything less than 100%. Furthermore, remember only one No. 1 NBA draft pick has reached the Final Four in the last decade, Paolo Banchero with Duke in 2022.
The West Region is an absolute mess to predict, but the post presences of both Maryland and Texas Tech should create high postseason floors. Both teams have played like Top 10 teams since Feb. 1, peaking at the right time. When they meet, the Terrapins’ offense will rely too heavily on free throws to be trusted against the Red Raiders’ ruthlessly efficient offense.
Houston was always going to be this bracket’s champion. The Cougars just routed the entire Big 12 and have not lost in regulation since the second game of the season. Houston’s defense does not get enough credit, but this is one of the most experienced rosters in the country with a thorough understanding of Kelvin Sampson’s pressuring system.
Sampson and the Cougars have advanced to at least the Sweet 16 in five straight NCAA Tournaments. This is the year the 30-year coaching veteran finally gets his title.
- Round 1 upsets: 10
- Sweet 16 Cinderellas: 4
10 New Mexico
11 Xavier
12 McNeese
13 Yale - Final Four
1 Auburn vs. 3 Texas Tech
6 BYU vs. 1 Houston - National Championship
Houston over Auburn
East Region picks
Let's get into the chaos right away, with a 14-seed winning in Round 1, plus top-seeded Duke falling short in the regional finals... to sixth-seeded BYU.
Round 1 picks
1 Duke vs. 16 American/Mount St. Mary's pick: Duke
8 Mississippi State vs. 9 Baylor pick: Baylor
5 Oregon vs. 12 Liberty pick: Oregon
4 Arizona vs. 13 Akron pick: Arizona
6 BYU vs. 11 VCU pick: BYU
3 Wisconsin vs. 14 Montana pick: Montana
7 Saint Mary's vs. 10 Vanderbilt pick: Saint Mary's
2 Alabama vs. 15 Robert Morris pick: Alabama
Round 2 picks
1 Duke vs. 9 Baylor pick: Duke
4 Arizona vs. 5 Oregon pick: Oregon
6 BYU vs. 14 Montana pick: BYU
2 Alabama vs. 7 Saint Mary's pick: Alabama
Sweet 16 picks
1 Duke vs. 5 Oregon pick: Duke
2 Alabama vs. 6 BYU pick: BYU
Elite Eight pick
1 Duke vs. 6 BYU pick: BYU
Midwest Region picks
Who doesn't love a Cinderella run? I'm currently looking at No. 11 Xavier — set to play tonight in the First Four — carrying its momentum to the Elite Eight. Sadly, the story ends there, as No. 1 seed Houston reaches the Final Four.
Round 1 picks
1 Houston vs. 16 SIU Edwardsville pick: Houston
8 Gonzaga vs. 9 Georgia pick: Gonzaga
5 Clemson vs. 12 McNeese pick: McNeese
4 Purdue vs. 13 High Point pick: Purdue
6 Illinois vs. 11 Xavier/Texas pick: Xavier
3 Kentucky vs. 14 Troy pick: Kentucky
7 UCLA vs. 10 Utah State pick: UCLA
2 Tennessee vs. 15 Wofford pick: Tennessee
Round 2 picks
1 Houston vs. 8 Gonzaga pick: Houston
4 Purdue vs. 12 McNeese pick: McNeese
3 Kentucky vs. 11 Xavier pick: Xavier
2 Tennessee vs. 7 UCLA pick: Tennessee
Sweet 16 picks
1 Houston vs. 12 McNeese pick: Houston
2 Tennessee vs. 11 Xavier pick: Xavier
Elite Eight pick
1 Houston vs. 11 Xavier pick: Houston
South Region picks
I have five double-digit seeds winning in the first round here, including No. 13 Yale reaching the Sweet 16 and a 15-seed pulling off a massive upset. At the end, however, chalk prevails as Auburn — the top overall seed in the bracket — advances out of this region.
Round 1 picks
1 Auburn vs. 16 Alabama State pick: Auburn
8 Louisville vs. 9 Creighton pick: Louisville
5 Michigan vs. 12 UC San Diego pick: UC San Diego
4 Texas A&M vs. 13 Yale pick: Yale
6 Mississippi vs. 11 UNC pick: UNC
3 Iowa State vs. 14 Lipscomb pick: Iowa State
7 Marquette vs. 10 New Mexico pick: New Mexico
2 Michigan State vs. 15 Bryant pick: Bryant
Round 2 picks
1 Auburn vs. 8 Louisville pick: Auburn
12 UC San Diego vs. 13 Yale pick: Yale
3 Iowa State vs. 11 UNC pick: Iowa State
10 New Mexico vs. 15 Bryant pick: New Mexico
Sweet 16 picks
1 Auburn vs. 13 Yale pick: Auburn
3 Iowa State vs. 10 New Mexico pick: New Mexico
Elite Eight pick
1 Auburn vs. 3 Iowa State pick: Auburn
West Region picks
I have two double-digit seeds winning in the opening round (although Colorado State is favored as a 12-seed), but the real upset is a Regional Final absent the top two seeds, with No. 3 Texas Tech outlasting fourth-seeded Maryland.
Round 1 picks
1 Florida vs. 16 Norfolk State pick: Florida
8 UConn vs. 9 Oklahoma pick: UConn
5 Memphis vs. 12 Colorado State pick: Colorado State
4 Maryland vs. 13 Grand Canyon pick: Maryland
6 Missouri vs. 11 Drake pick: Drake
3 Texas Tech vs. 14 UNC Wilmington pick: Texas Tech
7 Kansas vs. 10 Arkansas pick: Kansas
2 St. John's vs. 15 Omaha pick: St. John's
Round 2 picks
1 Florida vs. 8 UConn pick: Florida
4 Maryland vs. 12 Colorado State pick: Maryland
3 Texas Tech vs. 11 Drake pick: Texas Tech
2 St. John's vs. 7 Kansas pick: St. John's
Sweet 16 picks
1 Florida vs. 4 Maryland pick: Maryland
2 St. John's vs. 3 Texas Tech pick: Texas Tech
Elite Eight pick
3 Texas Tech vs. 4 Maryland pick: Texas Tech
Final Four picks and predictions
Final four
1 Auburn vs. 3 Texas Tech pick: Auburn
6 BYU vs. 1 Houston pick: Houston
National Championship
1 Auburn vs. 1 Houston pick: Houston
