The March Madness bracket is a beautiful thing, and anyone agreeing with Tom Izzo that mid-major auto bids should be a thing of the past needs to just watch the No. 10 Drake Bulldogs.
Drake's March Madness odds were looking slim before it won three games in three days in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, guaranteeing itself a bid. The possibility of the Bulldogs missing the tournament would have been a calamity.
Their offense will hold your attention as you end your 12-hour day at the bar, even as it goes against the stout defense of the No. 7 Washington State Cougars. The focus will be on Drake junior forward Tucker DeVries — and understandably so — but the edge in betting this game can be found in something even more fundamental.
Let’s study one of the first round’s tightest spreads with tonight's free college basketball picks for Drake vs Washington State.
For more coverage ahead of all the action, be sure to check out our March Madness picks page.
Drake vs Washington State best odds
Drake vs Washington State picks and predictions
Modern college basketball hasn't shifted as distinctly as modern college football. In the latter, offense now wins championships. That's the reality of the 2020s and one that has actively shifted handicapping.
Offense tends to win more games in college basketball now, too, but the right defense can still win it all. Exhibit A: 2019 Virginia. Exhibit B: Houston’s making two Sweet Sixteens, an Elite Eight and a Final Four in the last four NCAA Tournaments.
But look at the top of Ken Pomeroy’s advanced metrics, just for one sample set. Twelve of the Top 17 teams have offenses in the Top 13, while four more enjoy Top-22 adjusted offenses. Only seven of the Top 17 have defenses that are lofty, and only two more can claim adjusted defenses in the Top 22.
The selection committee does not use KenPom’s ratings to determine much — where art thou, Indiana State — yet 11 of the Top 12 seeds are in the Top 14 of his adjusted efficiency margin. The better offenses tend to have impressed more this season and found higher rankings both on paper and in your bracket.
Trust that a bit, and doubly trust it when games are as tight as Drake Bulldogs vs. Washington State Cougars should be.
The two best units on the court in Omaha will be the Bulldogs’ offense and the Cougars’ defense. That has been true all season and it has been true in recent weeks. Looking across the last month, Drake’s offense has ranked No. 26 in the country, per barttorvik, while Washington State’s defense has ranked No. 34.
Neither team has an exorbitant tempo desire, lessening any game-state variance worries.
The Cougars excessively limit opponent's looks from deep, giving up those shots less often than anyone else in the Pac-12. But the Bulldogs do not rely on the three, shooting it well but equally distributing their points.
Star Tucker DeVries, in particular, scores from all levels of the court, so running him off the arc will not stymy Drake’s offense. In a close game with no distinct style clash, the edge should be given to the offensive strengths. That is modern college basketball.
In any close tournament game, faith should be given to the team that makes free throws (76.3%, led by DeVries at 82.5%) and takes a decent amount of them while rarely fouling, especially when its opponent shoots badly (70.1%).
My best bet: Drake moneyline (-118 at FanDuel)
Drake vs Washington State same-game parlay
Drake moneyline
Tucker DeVries Over 20.5 points
Tucker DeVries Under 2.5 made 3s
The bad news is each of these individual plays is juiced against creating value here, particularly when compared to other sportsbooks. The good news is DraftKings still offers this combination as a same-game parlay, something other sportsbooks are not allowing, or at least not yet.
And the counter-intuitive combination of DeVries scoring more than 20 points while not hitting more than two 3-pointers creates value in our payout, despite those individual worries of juice.
Drake does not overly depend on deep shots, ranking No. 119 in the country in frequency rate from beyond the arc this season. And Washington State will limit those looks, ranking No. 29.
But in two of DeVries’s last six games, he scored more than 20 points while hitting only a pair of 3-pointers. In early February, he poured in 27 points while going 0-for-5 from long distance.
How? He went 13 of 15 at the free throw line. That raises DeVries’s floor to a level that puts faith both in his stat line and in Drake’s odds of winning to end Thursday’s action.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Best college basketball bonuses
All Users
64% boost for one CBB bet
e.g. -118 BOOSTS to +139! Claim Now
All UsersThree 64% CBB boosts
One any bet, live bet, and parlay! Claim Now
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2024.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Drake vs Washington State spread and Over/Under analysis
Washington State opened as a 1.5-point favorite when the selection committee first announced this matchup, a number that jumped the fence mid-morning on Monday. That movement reflects faith in recent performances.
Frankly, this game should probably be a pick’em, and betting any spread number outside of +/- one would be an undue risk.
The total opened at 137.5 or 138.5, depending on your sportsbook, and bounced around to land at 138. That is a few points below KenPom’s projection, something generally true of first-round March Madness games.
Drake vs Washington State betting trend to know
Drake has not only gone 6-2 against the spread in its last eight games, including 4-0 in its last four, but it beat the spread in those six games by an average of 6.5 points. Find more college basketball betting trends for Drake vs. Washington State.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Play at Pinnacle: Offering 25 + years of betting experience
Make your March Madness wagers at Pinnacle, which offers Canadians unbeatable value with the most competitive odds in the industry and high limits — come find out why Pinnacle is home to better odds and better payouts!
Drake vs Washington State game info
| Location: | CHI Health Center Omaha, Omaha, NE |
| Date: | Thursday, March 21, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | truTV |
Drake vs Washington State key injuries
Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the 
to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.
