The No. 2 Arizona Wildcats and No. 15 Long Beach State Beach get an early wakeup call from the “Madness” in Salt Lake City on Thursday.
This 2 p.m. ET tipoff (12 p.m. in Arizona and 11 a.m. in California) in the West Region of the March Madness bracket has the Wildcats installed as hefty first-round favorites.
Arizona earned a No. 2 seed with a 24-7 SU record (20-10-1 ATS), but backs into the Big Dance having lost in the Pac-12 tournament semifinals. The March Madness odds have the Wildcats among the top contenders to win the national title (+1,400) and it begins with the Beach.
Long Beach State (18-14 SU, 13-17 ATS) punched its dance card with a shocking win in the Big West tournament and the Beach is chaos on and off the court. On the court, LBSU plays a high-pressure style that thrives on turnovers. Off the court, the program is mired in drama with head coach Dan Monson set to be fired before leading LBSU to that tournament title.
I size up the spread and Over/Under total for this No. 2 versus No. 15 matchup and give my best March Madness picks and predictions for Long Beach State vs. Arizona on Thursday, March 21.
For more college basketball picks advice, check out our March Madness trends page.
Long Beach State vs Arizona best odds
Long Beach State vs Arizona picks and predictions
The Arizona Wildcats will be a handful for the Long Beach State Beach in Round 1 of the NCAA Tournament. Arizona enters as one of the best offenses in the land, with a surplus of playmakers creating scoring chances.
The Wildcats rack up assists at an incredible rate, leading the country in dishing out dimes with almost 19 per game. Arizona, which has three guards averaging 3.4 or more assists per outing, thrives on ball movement and an assist-to-FGM ratio of 59.1% (27th).
Long Beach State’s defense is anchored in anarchy. Coach Dan Monson plays an “in your shorts” style and drags out possessions deep into the shot clock, trying to generate turnovers to take to the other end for easy buckets.
But when that pressure doesn’t crack LBSU’s foes, the Beach find themselves in bad defensive position and susceptible to cuts and quick ball movement. On the year, LBSU gave up 15.5 assists per game (341st) and opponents enjoyed an assist-to-FGM ratio of 59.1% (343rd).
Given the talent in the Arizona backcourt, the Wildcats will be able to take advantage of that aggressive defending and pick apart Long Beach State for plenty of assisted buckets. That has my eyes on senior guard Pelle Larsson.
Larsson led the Wildcats with 3.6 assists per game this season and his assist prop for this tournament opener is parked right on that number, with books dealing 3.5 assists O/U.
Larsson logs the second-most minutes for Arizona behind only Caleb Love. While his assist output took a dip at the end of the season, he was limited in action in a few of those games due to one-sided scores.
The Wildcats’ team total is set at 91.5 points and some game models have their ceiling as high as 95 points against LBSU. That means plenty of scoring and assist opportunities. As for Larsson’s assist projections, those are flirting with five dimes in only 31 minutes against the Beach on Thursday.
Some shops price Larsson's Over 3.5 assists as high as -123, but the best price as of Tuesday morning is Over 3.5 -114 at FanDuel.
My best bet: Pelle Larsson Over 3.5 assists (-114 at FanDuel)
Long Beach State vs Arizona same-game parlay
Pelle Larsson Over 3.5 assists
Arizona -20.5
Long Beach State team total Under 70.5
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Larsson leads the best passing team in the country against a defense oozing assists to opponents.
Arizona is a top-tier team taking on a school that shouldn’t be here. Long Beach State stinks of a letdown spot.
The Beach score plenty of points off turnovers and offensive rebounds. That won’t come easy against an Arizona squad that fourth in defensive rebound rate in the country.
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Long Beach State vs Arizona spread and Over/Under analysis
After Arizona earned the No. 2 seed in the West Region, oddsmakers opened the Wildcats as 20.5-point neutral-court favorites in Salt Lake City.
That spread dropped to -19.5 then was bet up to -21.5 and has settled back at its original number as of Tuesday. According to Covers Consensus, 52% of picks are taking that pile of points with Long Beach State.
The Wildcats were not only one of the best teams in college hoops this season, but also one of the better bets despite facing a mountain of chalk some weeks. Arizona finished 21-12 against the spread, including a 19-12 ATS mark as a favorite and a 12-8 ATS record when laying 10 or more points.
Long Beach State bounced around the middle of the Big West and lugged a 0-5 SU and ATS slump into the conference tournament. The Beach then went full-on “28 Days Later” and came back from the dead to win three straight postseason games, covering the spread in all three.
Thursday’s Over/Under total opened at 159.5 points and has since climbed to as high as 161.5, with both programs ranking Top 30 in pace rating. Covers Consensus shows 56% of early picks siding with the Over.
Arizona brings a 16-15 O/U count in the NCAA Tournament, boasting a Top 10 offense in the country. The Wildcats are No. 8 in offensive efficiency and post an average of 89.5 points per outing.
Long Beach State is 16-13-1 O/U on the season. The Beach generate their points from turnovers, transition and crashing the offensive glass, averaging 77.4 points per game.
Long Beach State vs Arizona betting trend to know
Arizona has covered the spread in 21 of its last 33 games (+7.80 units). Find more college basketball betting trends for Long Beach State vs. Arizona.
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Long Beach State vs Arizona game info
| Location: | Delta Center, Salt Lake City, UT |
| Date: | Thursday, March 21, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
Long Beach State vs Arizona key injuries
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