One of the closest contests on today’s March Madness odds board comes out of the West Region of the March Madness bracket, where the No. 6 Clemson Tigers take on the No. 11 New Mexico Lobos.
Despite being the higher seed, Clemson opened as a 1.5-point underdog and has since swelled to as big as +2.5 with early betting action coming in on the Lobos out of the Mountain West Conference.
New Mexico didn’t leave its NCAA fate in the hands of the Selection Committee, avoiding the bracket bubble by winning the MWC tournament as a No. 6 seed. The Lobos are far from a lovable long shot, however: They boast one of the most explosive offenses in the land and rank No. 22 in defensive efficiency.
I size up this spread and Over/Under total for this No. 6 versus No. 11 clash and give my best March Madness picks and predictions for New Mexico vs. Clemson this afternoon.
New Mexico vs Clemson best odds
New Mexico vs Clemson picks and predictions
One of my first bets of the tournament was taking the Over 149 on this game. Now that the total has soared to as big as 152 points, I won’t be suggesting you eat the worst of the number.
Keeping in line with that thread of plenty of points, though, we turn to the scoring props and find Clemson Tigers stud big man PJ Hall. The 6-foot-10 senior has a points prop of 17.5 Over/Under for the Round of 64.
Hall, who averages almost 19 points per game, has scored 18 or more in four straight contests and in 11 of his last 17 outings. Player projections for Hall forecast 20+ points and I believe his ceiling is even higher considering the matchup.
The New Mexico Lobos are sound defensively, especially when it comes to protecting the perimeter. The Lobos allow foes to fire at just 30.6% from distance and knock down an average of less than seven makes from beyond the arc.
But take New Mexico inside and it’s giving up more than 49% success on 2-point attempts and ranking 304th in points allowed per play on shots at the rim, according to ShotQualityBets.
Conversely, Clemson sits 38th in points per play in the offensive flip of that metric and a lot of that has to do with Hall’s interior dominance. He has great touch around the rim and range that can stretch the defense, knocking down 1.5 triples per game.
The Lobos have been pushed around by skilled big men this season, giving up 20+ points on multiple occasions to the likes of SDSU’s Jaedon LeDee, Utah State's Great Osbor, Air Force's Beau Becker, and BSU's O'Mar Stanley.
New Mexico will get its heels above the 3-point line and take away the Tigers’ outside threats like Joe Girard, leaving Clemson to dump the ball inside and let Hall go to work. The Lobos often find themselves in foul trouble (17.6 per game — 239th) and send foes to the stripe for 19.7 free-throw attempts. Hall will cash in those freebies, shooting 79% from the line.
Hall’s points prop is priced all over the board. While the total is a consensus 17.5 O/U across the market, some books have the Over as pricy as -125 and -120. FanDuel is the best deal on Over 17.5 at -102.
My best bet: PJ Hall Over 17.5 points (-102 at FanDuel) 25% boost available
New Mexico vs Clemson same-game parlay
PJ Hall Over 17.5 points
PJ Hall Over 5.5 rebounds
Jaelen House Over 16.5 points
Hall picks on a softer Lobos interior with player forecasts calling for 20 or more from the Tigers’ big man.
Hall’s rebounds have been down and that’s dragging this total down to 5.5 O/U. However, he’s forecasted for seven boards and the pace of this game will pump out a lot of shots with rebound chances.
Jaelen House was electric in the MWC tournament and game models call for 17+ from him in a fast-paced contest.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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New Mexico vs Clemson spread and Over/Under analysis
Following the unveiling of the 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket, oddsmakers installed New Mexico as a 1.5-point favorite for this West Region contest in Memphis despite the Lobos being a No. 11 seed.
That spread didn’t stick around long, as money on New Mexico added another point to the spread, which sits at -2.5 as of Wednesday afternoon. According to Covers Consensus data, 63% of picks are laying the short spread with the Lobos.
And you can’t blame them. New Mexico enters the tournament on a red-hot run through the MWC postseason, taking the tournament title as a No. 6 seed in a very competitive conference. The Lobos covered in all four postseason games and are riding a 6-0 ATS streak into the Big Dance, improving to 23-11 ATS on the season.
Clemson, on the other hand, comes out of a down year in the ACC. The Tigers have some notable wins on their resume, taking down the likes of South Carolina and Alabama in non-conference play and knocking off North Carolina in Chapel Hill.
But beyond those highlights, Clemson has been inconsistent and backs into the national tournament off a bad loss to Boston College in its ACC opener. The Tigers are 17-14-1 ATS overall but have covered the spread only once in their last five outings.
As for the Over/Under for Friday’s game, it opened as low as 147.5 points on Sunday and has seen one of the biggest adjustments across all the March Madness odds. Money flooded in on the Over, and this number is now sitting as high as 152 points, with Covers Consensus showing 57% of picks on the Over.
New Mexico runs one of the fastest tempos in the country, resulting in an average of almost 82 points per game. The Lobos finished the regular season on a 13-3 Over run in the final 16 games, but leaned into their defense in the MWC tournament and went Under in all four wins.
Clemson is no slouch when it comes to the scoreboard, sitting 27th in offensive efficiency and scoring more than 77 points per contest. The Tigers are 17-15 O/U on the season but stayed Under the total in seven of their previous 10 games entering March Madness.
New Mexico vs Clemson betting trend to know
New Mexico has gone Over in 13 of its last 20 games (+5.25 units). Find more college basketball betting trends for New Mexico vs. Clemson.
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New Mexico vs Clemson game info
| Location: | FedEx Forum, Memphis, TN |
| Date: | Friday, March 22, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 3:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | truTV |
New Mexico vs Clemson key injuries
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