New Mexico and Marquette meet in a compelling matchup in the South Region.
This is, surprisingly, the second all-time meeting between these two schools. The last came in 2013 when the Lobos took care of business against Marquette.
New Mexico comes into this one-off loss in its conference tournament to Boise State, a game they were in control of for a long time.
That loss broke a five-game win streak. Marquette hasn't played well lately, with losses in three of their last four games. Can they amend things today?
Read on for my New Mexico vs. Marquette predictions and March Madness picks for Friday, March 21st.
Who will win New Mexico vs Marquette?
I lean toward New Mexico and would pick them if forced (I did so in my bracket). These teams are very similar in their strengths and weaknesses, but one clear advantage for New Mexico is that, in the halfcourt, Nelly Junior Joseph is used as a roller to the basket.
The Eagles haven't been particularly good defensively here, and he's played his best basketball to end the season. Give me the Lobos in a battle of adjustments.
New Mexico vs Marquette prediction
My best bet: Kam Jones Under 20.5 pts (-120 at bet365)
Taking the Under was my first consideration here because of that, but I ended up thinking better of it. Both of these teams are so transition-oriented that even inefficient basketball could get it over.
For what it's worth, I projected a three-point edge on the number and may still end up playing it before tip. That said, there are better options for our best bet. I went to the prop market and played Kam Jones under 20.5 points.
This number is too high for this matchup.
To be clear, I think Jones is one of the best point guards in the country. He's one of the best because he's able to adapt to the game and take what the defense gives him.
Today, the New Mexico Lobos will force him to be a passer rather than a scorer, and he'll oblige.
New Mexico plays some of the most aggressive doubling defense in the country against opposing point guards—in the 90th percentile, to be exact. This will force the ball out of Jones' hands regularly in the halfcourt.
Can he score off the ball?
Sure, but when this has happened the majority of this season, Jones hasn't done that.
In the non-conference, Iowa State and Georgia are the greatest comps for how New Mexico may defend here. Jones scored 10 and 14 points in those games while dishing out eight assists in the latter and mainly being anonymous in the former.
The Lobos have the athleticism and length to mimic some of these things.
New Mexico hasn't faced someone with quite the skillset as Jones, but the numbers give some confidence if you look through the season of the score-heavy guards they have faced. Desmond Claude, who averaged almost 17 points this season, was held to 13.
In addition, UCLA's backcourt, which certainly has a combination of players capable of busting out for big games, was all held in single digits.
Kam Jones will be effective in this game because he's such a skilled player, but it won't be through scoring. I like New Mexico to keep him under 21, a number he was held under for most of February before getting hot in the Big East tournament.
New Mexico vs Marquette same-game parlay (SGP)
Kam Jones Under 20.5 points
Kam Jones Over 6.5 assists
Nelly Junior Joseph Over 14.5 pts
As we discussed above, the two additions to our same-game parlay should be no surprise.
The first is Kam Jones over his assist number. I fully expect the game plan for New Mexico to be forcing the ball out of Jones's hand. Of course, when you do that, you are gambling that his court vision doesn't beat you, and that isn't always a foolproof fan.
Here's a stat: Of the last six games, Jones has been held under 15 points, and he's gone over this assist total in five. These are correlated, and I expect him to exceed this number today, with the game plan dictating him as a passer.
Rounding off our same-game parlay is Nelly Junior Joseph to score 15 or more points. He went over this number in two of his last three games of the year, both times quite easily.
The matchup should dictate this one, like the other two plays of this parlay.
The Marquette Golden Eagles were one of the worst "big cutting" defenses in the Big East this season, allowing .98 points per possession on such actions. Junior Joseph is well equipped to attack this.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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New Mexico vs Marquette odds
New Mexico vs Marquette live odds
New Mexico vs Marquette opening odds
- Spread: New Mexico +4 (-110) | Marquette -4 (-110)
- Moneyline: New Mexico (+145) | Marquette (-170)
- Over/Under: Over 152 (-110) | Under 152 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
New Mexico vs Marquette betting trend to know
New Mexico has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games (+7.30 Units / 19% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for New Mexico vs. Marquette.
How to watch New Mexico vs Marquette
| Region | South |
| Location | Rocket Arena, Cleveland, OH |
| Date | Friday, 3-21-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
New Mexico vs Marquette key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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