The upsets in the first round most helped the Houston Cougars’ national championship hopes, while the UConn Huskies’ domination of Stetson to open their tournament was enough of a statement to move their title odds, further helped by Auburn’s loss to Yale theoretically clearing a path to the March Madness bracket Elite Eight for the defending national champions.
UConn remains the clear favorite among March Madness picks in the outright betting odds, moving to +240 now from +350 before the NCAA Tournament at BetMGM, while Houston is down to +550. More bets and more money have come in on the Huskies winning it all than any other team in the last 24 hours at DraftKings.
What Saturday, March 23, games have seen the most movement in the March Madness odds?
March Madness odds movement
No. 7 Washington State Cougars vs. No. 2 Iowa State Cyclones
This line movement raises an eyebrow. All the money has poured in on Iowa State, with 77% of bets and 75% of the handle backing the Cyclones at BetMGM, but the line has still moved toward Washington State, opening at +7.5 and now sitting at +6.5. Bet365 has also seen almost entirely Cyclones support, 75% of tickets backing Iowa State.
The Covers Consensus has also seen a pile of support behind Iowa State, 61% of picks coming in on the Cyclones.
One could argue this shrinking spread is a reflection of how good Iowa State’s defense is, likely to make this Omaha matchup a low-scoring game and thus theoretically deflate all scoring. Except, the money is all about the Over, too.
And again, the line movement should raise an eyebrow.
BetMGM has taken 73% of bets on the Over, but only 60% of the money. In response, it has knocked the total down to 128.5 from 129.5.
No. 11 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 3 Creighton Bluejays
Faith in Dana Altman has long paid off in March, and bettors are lining up to believe in the Oregon head coach again. The Covers Consensus has seen 56% of action come in behind the Ducks, a modest majority compared to BetMGM taking 76% of the money on Oregon.
As a result, the line has moved from favoring Creighton by 5.5 to just -4.5.
The total has moved the opposite direction of the money, opening at 146.5 and dropping to 145.5 despite 70% of the bets and 66% of the action at BetMGM backing the Over.
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No. 5 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas opened as a 3.5-point underdog at BetMGM, but then 73% of bets and 72% of the handle came in on Gonzaga, pushing the line to -4.5. Bet365 has seen similar type of action, 67% of bet slips reading Gonzaga.
That one-sided play makes sense given how easily the Bulldogs dispatched trendy underdog McNeese State on Thursday while the Jayhawks barely slipped past Samford, not helped by the Tournament absence of Kevin McCullar due to injury.
The Covers Consensus has concurred with that movement, 64% of action on Gonzaga, as well. Just as decisively, even if it has not moved the line, the consensus is on Over 151.5, at both BetMGM with 73% of the handle and with 64% of picks here.
No. 7 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers
The biggest move in any spread or total on Saturday has been a drop in this total. BetMGM opened it at 147.5, only for 84% of the handle to bet the Under, forcing it down to 145.5.
The Covers Consensus has argued against that move, expecting Tennessee to dictate the pace, one of the country’s faster teams, with 53% of picks on the Over.
No. 9 Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels
Everyone wants to back the chalk in the West Regional. The Tar Heels have remained 3.5-point favorites at BetMGM, but 83% of bets and 79% of the money have landed on North Carolina. Doubting Tom Izzo has not historically been a smart March decision, but the Covers Consensus wants to do it, too, with 69% of picks fading Michigan State. And 81% of tickets at bet365 have also lined up behind North Carolina.
No other Saturday team has received more bets or more handle at DraftKings than the Tar Heels have.
And apparently doubting the Spartans comes with betting the Over, moving the total to 140.5 from opening at 139.5. BetMGM has seen 66% of the bets and 56% of the handle on the Over, inspiring that tick upward.
No. 11 Duquesne Dukes vs. No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini
The money has all come in on Illinois, 73% of BetMGM’s handle backing the Illini at -9.5, but the interesting note in this game is that the total has fallen to 147.5 from 148.5 despite even more money coming in on the Over.
BetMGM reports 75% of the handle on the Over, and the Covers Consensus has seen 55% of picks on the Over, both countering the drop in the total.
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