If Saturday’s March Madness bracket story was all eight favorites moving on and six of them covering, then Sunday’s story should be the intrigue of a few upstart underdogs. Bettors are lining up behind two of them to at least worry their national-title-contending opponents.
One underdog, in particular, may be in position to add a second scalp to its March resume on Sunday evening.
We'll start there as we look at the games on Sunday, March 24, to find the most movement in the March Madness odds.
March Madness odds movement
No. 12 James Madison Dukes vs. No. 4 Duke Blue Devils
The money is entirely supporting the No. 12 seed’s dream. More than 80% of the betting handle has come in on James Madison +7.5 at BetMGM via 75% of the tickets. The Dukes have seen the second-most money bet on them of any team in the Tournament on Sunday.
The Covers Consensus believes the same dream with 73% of picks backing the Dukes against Duke.
That said, it should be acknowledged the line has not moved much, if at all. Most books have stuck to +7.5, with DraftKings and Caesars the early-morning exceptions by moving to +7.
No. 8 Utah State Aggies vs. No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers
A majority of bettors also want to believe in Utah State ending Purdue’s redemption tour. At BetMGM, 52% of bets back the Aggies.
The majority of money, however, sees the Boilermakers as underappreciated favorites, with 54% of the handle taking -10.5 and forcing the number up to -11.5.
The Covers Consensus is also somewhat split here, with just 57% of picks on Utah State.
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No. 9 Northwestern Wildcats vs. No. 1 UConn Huskies
The line movement and the action report disagree here. Northwestern opened as a 14.5-point underdog, a hefty number compared to most projections. Nonetheless, the money came in on UConn, with 73% of tickets and 86% of the betting handle at BetMGM taking the defending national champions.
The same is true in the Covers Consensus, with 64% of picks rallying behind the Huskies.
No. 10 Colorado Buffaloes vs. No. 2 Marquette Golden Eagles
One underdog with hardly any support would be Colorado. BetMGM has taken just 22% of the money bet on this game in support of the Buffaloes and 27% of tickets. That action has been so one-sided as to move the spread to -4.5 after opening with Marquette favored by just 3.5.
No other team has taken more money at BetMGM today than the Golden Eagles have.
No. 12 Grand Canyon Antelopes vs. No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide
Grand Canyon also lacks public support, with only 39% of the betting tickets and 32% of the handle on the Antelopes at BetMGM. In response, the sportsbook ticked the line up to -6.5 after opening with Alabama favored by 5.5.
The Covers Consensus has taken 56% of picks on the Tide at -5.5.
No. 9 Texas A&M vs. No. 1 Houston Cougars
The single-biggest move of any line in Sunday’s NCAA Tournament has been the total in this Midwest Regional quarterfinal. The total opened at 132.5 at BetMGM only for 71% of bets and 70% of the handle to steam it up to 134.5.
That may be a surprise, given Houston’s trademark defense, the best in the country according to KenPom, but Texas A&M has been an Over-trending team all season, cashing 22 Overs in 35 games, including each of its last six.
The Covers Consensus is not as determined to believe in the Over with just 53% of picks leaning that way
BetMGM reports 75% of the handle on the Over, and the Covers Consensus has seen 55% of picks on the Over, both countering the drop in the total.
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