Nevada vs Arizona State Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Styles Slow Fights in First Four

The final game of the First Four in Dayton, before the March Madness odds board is set, gives us a fun matchup between two schools from the west in Arizona State and Nevada.

These two squads are the last two at-large bids to make the NCAA Tournament. The Wolfpack grabbed the final spot after a 22-10 season, losing in their first game of the Mountain West Tournament. Arizona State managed to get here on the back on the back of two strong Quad 1 wins against Arizona and Colorado. 

What's the best bet for this matchup? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Arizona State vs. Nevada on March 15, and check out our March Madness picks for more.

Nevada vs Arizona State best odds

Nevada vs Arizona State picks and predictions

It's anecdotal, but some strange elements about playing in the First Four games affect how teams start out of the gate. 

For starters, it's a gym filled with mostly neutral fans. That makes the atmosphere of the game feel a tad off. 

Secondly, with two 11 seeds, it features two teams playing with mixed emotions. Of course, the teams are happy to make the dance, but they also feel a little slighted to be playing in the First Four, often that can lead to a bit of a slow start. 

I'm banking on that here, and that's just the start of the reasons why. 

Adding to the oddities of this matchup is that two players who transferred to Arizona State, Warren Washington Jr. and Desmond Cambridge Jr., will now be going against their former school. Those two players are also essential to this handicap, particularly Washington.

"Warren's been our anchor around the basket," Hurley told the assembled media. "His ability to challenge shots, block shots and rebound the ball."

The rim-alternating aspect of his game will help this one go low-scoring early. Nevada posted up more than anyone in the Mountain West this season. The Wolfpack have diversity to their offense with secondary screening action, but they certainly are at their most comfortable in the post. 

The Sun Devils grade out well here. They finished the season in the Top 30 percentile of post-up defenses and did it in a league with talented bigs like Adem Bona and Azuolas Tubelis. This can make Nevada uncomfortable. Head coach Steve Alford will adjust, but it may take some time into the game before he can do that, and that's all we'll need. 

On the other side of the ball, Arizona State's offensive identity is all over the place.

What's wildly apparent is that it's full of streaking shooters that don't generally take good shots. Nevada is solid at the rim, allowing a field goal percentage in the top half of college basketball, which will force Arizona State's shooters to take more jump shots. 

Cambridge has had the green light most of the season but has only shot 39% from the field. I'll take my chances if the ball is in his hands. The Sun Devils rank 285th in rim- and threes-rate according to ShotQuality, a perfect illustration of their offensive efficiency or lack thereof.

Take the early Under here. 

My best bet: First-half Under 62.5 (-110 at bet365)

Nevada vs Arizona State spread analysis

If I'm on a side, it's Nevada. 

My projections have the Wolfpack by 2.0, and they have much more of a semblance of an offensive identity. These teams have many similarities on the defensive end but couldn't be more different on the offensive end. I will trust the one with a more proven ability to score, but I will wait for in-game betting. 

The neutral-site factor will likely be heightened given that these teams are both from the west and, consequently, a long way from home. With that in mind, it's worth noting that Nevada typically performs well in these spots. The Wolfpack are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 neutral site games. 

Nevada vs Arizona State Over/Under analysis

Given that I'm on the first half Under, I also like the whole game Under. 

There will likely be an opportunity to hit the entire game Over after a slow start, though. I'm more inclined to do that than anything else. 

My projection for this total sets the number at 135.5 and that's spot on, with the totals you'll find ranging from 134.5 to 135.5 across various books. 

Although both teams can present defensive issues for the others, especially early, I also believe there's a decent chance that Arizona State's athleticism could put the emphasis on it to play faster, especially later. 

The Under has been a hot bet when Arizona State has played this season. Its games have gone Under in five straight after a straight-up loss and it has gone Under at 8-2 clip in midweek games this season as well. 

Nevada vs Arizona State betting trend to know

The Under is 5-0 in Arizona State's games following a straight-up loss. Find more college basketball betting trends for Mississippi State vs. Pittsburgh.

Nevada vs Arizona State game info

Nevada vs Arizona State key injuries

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