The biggest spread in the Round of 64 should not be viewed as only an indictment of the No. 16 Stetson Hatters; it's also a compliment to the No. 1 Connecticut Huskies.
The defending national champions deserved the overall No. 1 seed in the March Madness bracket and have the shortest March Madness odds (+400) for a reason.
One of the reasons UConn is No. 1 is its defense, and it would be even better if it had not defended somewhat poorly against some of the country’s worst teams this year — and while Stetson won this auto-bid fair and square, it qualifies as one of the country’s worst teams.
See what I'm getting at?
Realizing it's only human nature for the best team in the country to lapse defensively against lesser teams, there's clear value to be targeted in our March Madness picks for Stetson vs. UConn this afternoon, with tip set for 2:45 ET.
Stetson vs UConn best odds
Stetson vs UConn picks and predictions
These are 18-23-year-olds. We sometimes forget just how human they are. When we remember, it's usually laughing at a gaffe. Their human nature shows up far more often than that.
The UConn Huskies played nine games against teams against what are considered Quad-4 opponents. In other words, they played nine games against teams so overmatched that they favored by at least 21 points. Note: The Huskies are favored by 26.5 against the Stetson Hatters.
In those nine games, UConn gave up 6.2 points per 100 possessions more than against all other foes, adjusted for opponents, per barttorvik.com. Against Quad-4 opponents, the Huskies’ defense ranked No. 81 in efficiency, hardly the looks of a title contender.
That should hardly be criticized. UConn won a national title last year. It knows how much of a talent edge it has on Manhattan and New Hampshire, on DePaul and Georgetown, let alone on Stetson.
The Huskies’ coaching staff would never acknowledge this, but it probably did not even spend as much time prepping the team for those games, trusting its overall competence to be enough, as it was.
However, that human nature showed up defensively. Six of those nine games saw UConn’s opponent go Over its team total and the three Unders were by 5.5 points, half a point, and 1.5 points. Five of the six team total Overs were by more than a bucket, clearing those totals by an average of seven points.
It's hard to emphasize how bad some of those offenses were. Stetson’s is not that bad, better than all nine of those occasions. (This handicap could include 150 words of accidental DePaul criticism.)
In other words, the Hatters are entirely capable enough of enjoying some relative success while UConn eases into its title defense. That might be a win-win for all involved.
My best bet: Stetson team total Over 59.5 (-104 at FanDuel)
Stetson vs UConn same-game parlay
Stetson team total Over 59.5
Stetson +26.5
Stetson first-half +16.5
This all buys into the thought that Stetson will find some traction, relatively speaking, with the biggest spread of the tournament at hand.
The Hatters’ offense ranks somewhere in the high triple digits, depending on what metrics you want to consult, on the edge of the top third in the country. They shoot well and often from three while also making their free throws and protecting the basketball.
Some success can be expected, even if not rampant.
With UConn on cruise control — and again, who can blame the Huskies? — Stetson should play reasonably competitive basketball for 30 minutes on Friday. As long as the 10-minute segment blowing open the game does not come in the first half, this SGP provides value.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Stetson vs UConn spread and Over/Under analysis
Not only is this the biggest spread of the tournament — pending odds on Purdue vs. the winner of Grambling and Montana State — it may also have been the most ignored line to start the week. Bookmakers pegged UConn as a 26.5-point favorite and no one has moved an inch through Wednesday afternoon.
The total, however, has fluctuated. It opened at 144 and climbed as high as 146.5 on Tuesday afternoon before settling at 145.5. Consider that a sign of expected ambivalence.
Stetson vs UConn betting trend to know
Danny Hurley is 1-2 against the spread in the first round of the NCAA Tournament as UConn’s head coach. Find more college basketball betting trends for Stetson vs. UConn.
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Stetson vs UConn game info
| Location: | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY |
| Date: | Friday, March 22, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 2:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Stetson vs UConn key injuries
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