March Madness Survivor Pool Picks: Expert Advice for Elite 8

You survived until the Elite Eight in your March Madness survivor pool? You are a smarter bettor than I am.

Indeed, the Top-2 survivor suggestions for the Sweet 16 lost this week. Variance from beyond the arc comes for most all of us at some point, and it made North Carolina senior guard RJ Davis’s Thursday miserable, the 41.1% shooter going 0-for-9 from deep. Then it felled the 2-seed Marquette on Friday, the Golden Eagles posting the second-worst 3-point shooting percentage this season among the 1,331 times a team took at least 30 threes in a game.

The advice below could be rendered wretched by another 4-of-31 showing from beyond the arc. These are the risks we take.

If your survivor entry held on this long, the good news of those upsets is that few competitors are alive with you in your pool. You now effectively have two choices.

Plot a conservative route through the next three rounds of the March Madness bracket: Pick the No. 1 UConn Huskies to win the title. You will most likely split your pot with anyone else who correctly identifies the runner-up, but the Huskies are odds-on favorites to win the title for a reason.

Or take a contrarian path: Bet against UConn. If you can pick the correct winner from among the other seven remaining teams, you just might win your pot outright.

Recommended conservative path: Alabama on Saturday, Duke on Sunday.
Recommended contrarian path: Clemson on Saturday, Purdue on Sunday.

One note: Some survivor competitions will tell you that you do not need to pick a team each of Saturday and Sunday, simply two teams over the weekend as a whole. Do not fall for that mistake. If you pick two teams on the same day, you will not have a pick available in the national championship game, should you make it that far.

Best Elite 8 March Madness survivor pool picks

1. Alabama Crimson Tide

Yes, the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide needed 3-point variance to get by North Carolina, but the Tide were able to dictate the pace of that game, and that helter-skelter approach should cause trouble for the No. 6 Clemson Tigers in this quick turnaround.

Alabama plays at the ninth-fastest pace in the country, per Ken Pomeroy while taking 46.3% of its shots from deep. Clemson would rather plod, but its worry should be that it gives up looks from long range on 40.6% of field goal attempts.

2. Clemson Tigers

The real reason to take the Tide was — if thinking conservatively because UConn should win the title — you will not select Alabama in the Final Four. That is your biggest question right now: Who are you betting to lose in the Final Four? Those are your survivor picks in the Elite Eight.

Hence, the No. 6 Clemson Tigers ranking this high, as well.

The Tigers have exactly no indicators of being a national championship contender, aside from reaching the Elite Eight. They should not beat Alabama, but the same could have been said in each of their three Tournament games thus far.

Taking Clemson on Saturday in your survivor pool serves as a short-term contrarian thought, yet still a long-term conservative approach.

3. Duke Blue Devils

The No. 4 Duke Blue Devils have the fourth-shortest March Madness odds (+850 at FanDuel), but one of those ahead of them is assured of awaiting in the Final Four should Duke win on Sunday. Thus, the Blue Devils fit the thought of a team set to lose in the Final Four, the exact profile you are looking for in the Elite Eight.

Favored by six points against the No. 11 NC State Wolfpack, Duke should end the best Cinderella story of this bracket. Led by 7-foot Kyle Filipowski and 6-foot-9 Mark Mitchell, the Blue Devils are certainly big enough to bother Wolfpack star DJ Burns, even if Duke lost their only previous meeting this season in the ACC Tournament.

The Blue Devils shot 5-for-20 from beyond the arc in that 5-point loss. In their three Tournament games, they have hit 41.3% of their threes. Trust in that, not in an odd game at Madison Square Garden.

4. Purdue Boilermakers

The No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers fall behind Duke in this conversation because, quite simply, if they were to meet in Phoenix, Purdue would be a 3-point favorite. In other words, the Boilermakers are the remaining team most likely to lose in the national championship game. They are +300 to actually win that game.

They are ahead of the next entrant because Purdue should win on Sunday.

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5. Tennessee Volunteers

Why such faith in the No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers to lose despite being merely 3-point underdogs? They foul too often. Tennessee sent opponents to the free throw line at a rate worse than two-thirds of the country, too many of those infractions coming from star Dalton Knecht and the rest stemming from the Volunteers’ big men.

Meanwhile, Purdue ranks No. 13 in getting to the free throw line, with no player in the country drawing fouls at a quicker rate than 7-foot-4 Zach Edey.

With point guard Santiago Vescovi battling the flu, Tennessee is barely six players deep. Foul trouble will doom it.

Take the Volunteers as a contrarian play at your own risk.

6. North Carolina State Wolfpack

This has been a fun story. It has changed head coach Kevin Keatts’s life, as well as the fortunes of the next few generations of Keatts, but let’s not pretend like NC State should have won on Friday night.

That may come across as sour grapes, having personally lost my last survivor bid when Marquette put together that 4-for-31 performance from deep, but it is still a reality.

This Wolfpack run will end.

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7. Connecticut Huskies

FanDuel puts the No. 1 Connecticut Huskies at +100 to win the national championship. KenPom considers the Huskies to be three points better than Purdue and 6.5 points better than Duke.

You can be confident in UConn winning on Saturday. Tough break, Illinois. You can probably be confident in UConn winning the national championship.

However, if wanting to differentiate yourself from the rest of the remaining entries in your pool, take the Huskies now, also known as a bet on them to not make the national championship game. That is a bold stance, perhaps too bold, but it is a defensible approach.

8. Illinois Fighting Illini

The No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini may be in over their heads on Saturday. The second-best offense in the country is now facing the best offense in the country, which just so happens to have a Top-10 defense, too. Meanwhile, Illinois’s defense ranks in the 80s.

Don’t try to outsmart everyone by taking the Illini on Saturday. The only person you will outsmart is yourself.

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