Tennessee vs Purdue Predictions, Picks, and Odds for March Madness Elite Eight Matchup

The Tennessee Volunteers are set to take on the Purdue Boilermakers in the Elite Eight this afternoon with a ticket to Arizona on the line.

The March Madness bracket has been chalky in the Midwest Region so it's only fitting the top seeds are facing off for a spot in the Final Four odds. March Madness odds have the No. 1 seeded Boilermakers pegged as 3-point favorites with the Over/Under at 147.5.

Here are my best free March Madness picks for Tennessee vs. Purdue on March 31.

Tennessee vs Purdue best odds

Tennessee vs Purdue picks and predictions

The Purdue Boilermakers have an offense that can score inside and out at an elite level. Center Zach Edey is practically impossible to stop inside and averages 24.5 ppg on 62.3% shooting.

If a defense tries to focus on slowing Edey down in the paint, things open up for Purdue's outside shooters who shoot a sizzling 41.2% from deep — the best number in the country.

While the Boilermakers are third in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom, the Tennessee Volunteers rank third in adjusted defensive efficiency. They are eighth in the country in opponent 2-point percentage (44%) and 28th in opponent 3-point percentage (30.9%) while also forcing turnovers at the highest rate in the SEC.

However, Purdue should be able to find cracks in this stingy Vols defense. While Tennessee does a good job of preventing drives to the rim, center Jonas Aidoo has been exposed to bigger centers that can attack him in the paint.

When these teams clashed at a neutral site back in November, Purdue won 71-67 with Edey forcing Aidoo and backup Tobe Awaka into foul trouble and finishing with 23 points on 7-10 shooting. Other top centers like Hunter Dickinson, Armando Bacot, and Tolu Smith have also bullied Aidoo so Edey should thrive once again.

Tennessee held Purdue's perimeter players to 4-15 shooting from deep in that contest but expect positive regression here. Keep in mind that ShotQualityBets projected Purdue to score five more points from threes based on the quality of shots taken and the Boilermakers have an incredible 42.6 3PT% since the start of January.

While the Vols have generally done a good job of defending the arc, strong shooting teams have had success. That includes their last game where Creighton went 11-for-23 from long range.

On the other end of the floor, this Tennessee offense can go ice-cold for stretches. In that previous meeting, the Vols had a pathetic 33.3 FG% and they're shooting just 43.2% from 2-point range this month while struggling to score inside in the last two rounds.

They'll have a tough time getting good looks inside with the 7-foot-4, 300-pound Edey clogging up the paint. The Boilermakers completely shut down Gonzaga in the second half of their Sweet 16 win and held Utah State to 37.9 2PT% in the second round and those are two of the most efficient teams in the country inside the arc.

Expect them to stifle this Vols offense while doing enough on offense themselves to cover this spread.

My best bet: Purdue -3 (-114 at Pinnacle)

Tennessee vs Purdue same-game parlay

Zach Edey Over 22.5 points

Zakai Zeigler Over 2.5 threes

Purdue moneyline

+475 at bet365

Edey is averaging 28.2 ppg on 64.9% shooting over his last 10 games. He finished with 23 points in the first meeting despite playing just 26 minutes due to foul trouble. The O/U on his points total has been set at 25.5 or 26.5 for the previous tournament games, so it's tough not to take it at this lower number in a favorable matchup.

Since the start of January, Zeigler has a 37.5 3PT% and he's been taking a higher volume of shots from deep lately. He's attempting 8.0 threes per game over his last eight contests while draining 3+ treys in six of those games.

The Boilermakers are 322nd at defending off-the-dribble threes and 198th at defending catch-and-shoot threes, per ShotQualityBets. With Edey in the paint, Ziegler and the Vols will be taking plenty of shots from the perimeter.

Instead of laying the points with Purdue, I’ll take them on the moneyline in this SGP which still pays out at +475 due to the correlation with Zeigler’s threes.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Tennessee vs Purdue spread and Over/Under analysis

• The line opened the Boilermakers as a 2.5-point favorite with the O/U at 148.5. The spread has ticked up to -3 while the total is down to 147.5.
  
  
• The Vols beat Creighton 82-75 as 3.5-point favorites in the Sweet 16 and they are 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games.
  
  
• The Boilermakers pulled away from Gonzaga in the second half to win 80-68 in the Sweet 16. They've covered in all three games of the NCAA tournament and are 9-1 SU and 7-2-1 ATS at neutral sites this season.
  
  
• When these teams clashed in November at the Maui Invitational, Purdue was a 3-point favorite with the O/U at 133.5. Although the spread is the same the total has ramped up which makes sense since the Over cashed in the first meeting despite horrific shooting numbers from both sides.

Tennessee vs Purdue betting trend to know

The Boilermakers are 9-0 SU and 7-1-1 ATS against ranked teams this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Tennessee vs. Purdue.

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