Doubt the SEC. Do it. No conference is deep enough to place 14 quality teams into the NCAA Tournament. But the SEC did have more quality teams than any other conference, and one of those was the Kentucky Wildcats. They largely deserved this No. 3 seed, and their ability to dispatch the Troy Trojans will emphasize that.
My Troy vs. Kentucky predictions and March Madness picks expect the Wildcats to make easy work of the Trojans, just as the Greeks once did, though Kentucky will need no myth of a horse at tip at 7:10 ET on Friday, March 21.
Who will win Troy vs Kentucky?
As much fun as the Sun Belt Conference is during the football season, it is the second-worst FBS conference in basketball, ahead of only the MAC. Troy tried to schedule aggressively in the nonconference slate, but all that really did was emphasize the gap between the Trojans and high-major basketball.
They lost by 16 to Arkansas, 21 to Oregon, and 20 to Houston. If those scores sound borderline respectable, then know that Troy went 1-2 against the spread, a 13-point underdog in each of the two former games. Not even garbage time could get the Trojans to cover those spreads.
And Kentucky is better than both Arkansas and Oregon, home loss to the Razorbacks and former Wildcats head coach John Calipari aside.
Kentucky should have no trouble in this tournament opener. In fact …
Troy vs Kentucky prediction
My best bet: Kentucky -11.5 (-110 at bet365)
Troy’s best hope is to slow this game down to a crawl, despite their usual pacing being rather middling. A slower game would simply have fewer possessions and thus would diminish the talent gap between these two.
But if the Trojans try that, their offense will struggle to score. Well, struggle to score even more than usual.
It is not a good offense, undone by shooting 30.3% from deep despite taking 3-pointers on nearly 45% of its field goal attempts. Troy’s best offensive skill — and if feeling harsh, it could be called Troy’s only offensive skill — is collecting offensive rebounds, finding them on 38.6% of missed shots.
Here comes the bad news for the Trojans: Kentucky ranks No. 25 in the country in defensive rebounding rate, doing that against far more difficult competition than the Sun Belt.
That can be too simple a point to make, the differences in competition between conferences, but the literal body types can sum it up in this instance. If all Troy relies on offensively is crashing the glass, how is that going to go when its average height is 6-foot-6 and its regular rotation includes no one taller than 6-foot-8?
Kentucky has a pair of veterans at 6-foot-10 and 6-foot-11, along with sophomore Brandon Garrison at 6-foot-10. By average height — and in this instance, “average” is weighted for playing time — the Wildcats are three-quarters of an inch taller than the Trojans.
Removing the offensive glass from Troy’s quiver will leave the Trojans with nothing but missed 3-pointers. Kentucky’s fast and ruthlessly efficient offense will have no trouble outpacing that baffled approach.
Troy vs Kentucky same-game parlay (SGP)
Kentucky -11.5
Troy team total Under 70.5 points
Amari Williams Over 7.5 rebounds
Every leg of this same-game parlay is based on Troy missing 3-pointers. Sure, there may be a universe where the Trojans find scorching heat from deep and ruin all plans, but not only is that true in all basketball games, it is also far from likely against a Kentucky defense that holds opponents to 30.8% from deep, the 30th-best defensive 3-point percentage in the country.
When Troy misses those 3s, no Wildcat will find more rebounds than 6-foot-10 senior Amari Williams. He found defensive rebounds at the fifth-best rate in the country this season, clearing this prop in 11 of 20 SEC games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Troy vs Kentucky odds
Troy vs Kentucky live odds
Troy vs Kentucky opening odds
- Spread: Troy +10.5 | Kentucky -10.5
- Moneyline: Troy +400 | Kentucky -550
- Over/Under: Over 153 | Under 153
Odds courtesy of bet365
Troy vs Kentucky betting trend to know
Kentucky went 7-4-1 against the spread as a double-digit favorite this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Troy vs. Kentucky.
How to watch Troy vs Kentucky
| Region | Midwest |
| Location | Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date | Friday, 3-21-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Troy vs Kentucky key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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