Nebraska vs Iowa Odds, Picks and Predictions: Banking on a Letdown

If Big Ten basketball on a Friday night in January is your idea of a great time, then I have a good one for you when the Nebraska Cornhuskers meet the Iowa Hawkeyes on Friday at 9:30 p.m. ET.

Nebraska has won five of its last six matchups, including a 16-point home victory Tuesday night over top-ranked Purdue. Meanwhile, Iowa defeated Rutgers by nine points at home on Saturday and is 4-1 over their last five tilts.

Please join me as I take a closer look at the college basketball odds with free college basketball picks as I preview Nebraska vs Iowa on Friday, January 12.

Nebraska vs Iowa best odds

Nebraska vs Iowa picks and predictions

The Nebraska Cornhuskers hoops team has spent much time this season on the national highlight shows. They’ve played with high energy and senior guard Keisei Tominaga has also brought some excitement to Lincoln and ESPN SportsCenter.

Tominaga has been a bit of a fixture on SportsCenter, and rightly so; the young southpaw has made big plays on both ends of the floor, and his 19 points Tuesday night led Nebraska to its biggest basketball victory historically when they upset the No. 1 ranked Purdue Boilermakers earlier this week.

Nebraska limited reigning National Player of the Year Zach Edey to 17 points and seven rebounds in their home rout over Purdue. The Boilermakers forced 14 turnovers they turned into 18 points and shot the Boilermakers lights out, connecting on 60% of their three-point attempts in a home game where everything seemed to go their way.

It’s an awesome feeling when “Davey beats Goliath,” but a letdown of sorts usually comes after one of those big wins. That’s not a good thing when facing the top-scoring team in the conference playing in their own building on a Friday night in Ames, Iowa.

The Iowa Hawkeyes lead the conference in scoring, averaging 86.7 points per game. They’ve had 10 games this season where they scored at least 84 points with an average of 19.2 assists per game. They don’t rely heavily on the triple but force 14 turnovers per game and play at one of the fastest tempos in the D1 game.

Iowa has the better offense, and Nebraska has the better defense, but the Hawkeyes are favored by -3.5, and I see them covering the number.

The Hawkeyes don’t play much defense, but they likely won’t have to on Friday. Tominaga has drained 47% from downtown over his last two, and while Iowa plays horrendous three-point defense, Nebraska has shot 45% or better over their previous three. I don’t see the Cornhuskers shooting anywhere near that on a Friday night in Ames, Iowa.

Finally, Iowa needs a victory, and they meet a Nebraska side that has been terrific but is due for a letdown after blowing out Purdue. Even with the Hawkeyes' inability to close out shooters at the three-point arc, Nebraska shooting over 45% from downtown over their last three isn’t sustainable, and the uber-fast Hawkeyes will take those misses and turn them into enough buckets to cover the -3.5 point spread. 

My best bet: Iowa -3.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

Nebraska vs Iowa same-game parlay

Iowa -3.5

Under 166

+268 at DraftKings

I’m banking on a huge letdown game for Nebraska, and this two-leg same-game parlay card pays $268 for a $100 stake.

Nebraska has been red-hot from downtown, and their 9.6 triples per night fuels their 78.4 points per game. They’ve drained 45% or better in each of their last three, but they are due for a stinker, and if they do lay one, they won’t score anywhere near their ppg average.

Iowa is the top-scoring team in the Big Ten. They don’t rely on the triple, but they face a Nebraska defense ranked 74th in defensive efficiency at KenPom; they won’t blow the Cornhuskers out, but they also won’t score 86 points either. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Nebraska vs Iowa spread and Over/Under analysis

Iowa covering the spread is my best bet, but the moneyline and total are intriguing and worthy of closer inspection.

Iowa is -164 to win this game, and that’s a good bet to make. The juice is a bit pricey, but maybe some money will come in on Nebraska, the number dips, and we get something around -145 to -150. Either way, Iowa -164 at FanDuel is a go for me.

The total ranges from Over 164.5 (-115) at FanDuel to Under 166 at Caesars and bet365 (-110) and everywhere else in between. 

The danger in the Under 166 is that Iowa doesn’t play any defense, and both teams play well above the D1 average tempo. The Hawkeyes rank 13th in the Big Ten in points allowed, and we’ve seen what the Cornhuskers can do when they get hot from downtown. They scorched Purdue for 60% from long range Tuesday night, depending on the triple for 37% of their production, and Iowa doesn’t guard the three-point arc very well. 

Conversely, Over 164.5 (-115) at FanDuel is likely the best number you’ll find. The danger is that if Nebraska goes cold from downtown, they won’t hit their 78.4 points per game. The Cornhuskers are a decent defensive team, and we’ve seen what they could do defensively with Purdue. Iowa doesn’t rely on the triple but does rely on steals, blocks, running, and gunning, and it’s entirely possible they can slow the Hawkeyes' overwhelming offense down. 

My lean will be total, and I will look for a number in-game closer to 170 and pound the Under as often as the bookmakers allow me to. 

Nebraska vs Iowa betting trend to know

Iowa is 4-2-0 ATS over their last six meetings with Nebraska. Find more college basketball betting trends for Nebraska vs. Iowa.

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