The Rutgers Scarlet Knights welcome the Penn State Nittany Lions to the RAC in college basketball action on Tuesday night.
The Scarlet Knights had lofty expectations entering this season but have failed to live up to them, and my Penn State vs. Rutgers predictions are fading them against a red-hot PSU squad. Here are my best free college basketball picks for this Big Ten battle on December 10.
Penn State vs Rutgers prediction
My best bet
Penn State +3 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Rutgers Scarlet Knights fans are learning a lesson that Kentucky fans know all too well: even if you recruit the top freshmen in the nation, it's no guarantee of a winning team. The Scarlet Knights have lost four of their last five games, with their only win during that span coming in overtime against Notre Dame.
Five-star freshmen Dylan Harper (23.1 points per game) and Ace Bailey (17.9 ppg) have played up to their billing, but nobody else on the team is averaging more than 9.0 ppg. Jordan Derkack and Tyson Acuff were star players at mid-major schools last year but have been highly inefficient with Rutgers, combining to shoot just 36.4% from the floor.
Meanwhile, the Penn State Nittany Lions are 7-1 and are fresh off an 81-70 win against No. 11 Purdue. They have far better scoring depth, with six players averaging more than 9.0 ppg, led by senior guard Ace Baldwin (15.1 ppg, 8.1 apg, 2.1 spg).
This is an efficient PSU offense that attacks the rim at the ninth-highest frequency in the country and is 33rd in free throw rate. They rarely take midrange shots and sit outside the Top 250 in 3-point rate. Since they don't rely on outside shots, they'll have less volatile scoring outputs on the road against teams that don't defend well inside.
The Scarlet Knights have significantly regressed on defense compared to the last few years when they had Cliff Omoruyi protecting the rim. While they were fifth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom, in 2023-24, they're just 97th so far this season.
The Nittany Lions are 37th in adjusted defense and rank fourth in opponent turnover rate. They forced 22 turnovers against Purdue's experienced backcourt and should be able to disrupt Rutgers' ball-handlers enough to get the cover here.
Penn State vs Rutgers same-game parlay
Penn State +3
Dylan Harper Over 21.5 points
Ace Bailey Over 4.5 rebounds
The fact the Knights have underperformed despite Harper's production gives us a nice parlay opportunity. The shooting guard dropped 21 points in a loss to lowly Kennesaw State and torched Alabama for 37 points in another defeat during the Players Era Festival. With both of these teams playing at a blazing fast pace, Harper should eclipse his points total even if Rutgers doesn't cover.
That tempo should also result in more possessions and rebounding opportunities which is why I also like the Over 4.5 rebounds for Bailey. The 6-foot-10 forward is averaging 6.0 rebounds per game and has snagged a total of 17 boards in his last two contests.
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Penn State vs Rutgers odds
Penn State vs Rutgers live odds
Penn State vs Rutgers opening odds
- Spread: Penn State +1.5 | Rutgers -1.5
- Moneyline: Penn State +105 | Rutgers -125
- Over/Under: Over 157.5 | Under 157.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Penn State vs Rutgers betting trend to know
Since the start of the 2021-22 season, PSU has gone 45-22-3 ATS (67.2%) in conference games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Penn State vs. Rutgers.
How to watch Penn State vs Rutgers
| Location: | Jersey Mike's Arena, Piscataway, NJ |
| Date: | Tuesday, 12-10-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Peacock |
Penn State vs Rutgers key injuries
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